A Shakespearean tragedy is defined as a drama which has a noble protagonist, who is flawed in some way, placed in a stressful heightened situation and ends with a fatal conclusion. Could there be a better a better analogy for the 2016 San Francisco Giants? So it is with great calamity that I write this eulogy for the dearly departed.
I am still stunned about the finish to game 4 of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs, but we must not dwell on the past. We must look forard to the future. Does this mean we can now hope that the Giants will start an odd year streak? Well, before we jump too far ahead, let's address the Giants' end-of-year press conference handled by General Manager Bobby Evans.
Before we get into the roster, let's talk about two changes on the coaching staff. First-base coach Bill Hayes and third-base coach Roberto Kelly have been relieved of their duties. There is a possibility that one or both could remain with the organization in different roles, but this is all that has been reported to this point.
Let's save the elephant in the room for a minute and talk about the offense. The Giants had a terrible time scoring runs and stringing together wins in the second half. Where can they improve? Well the immediate target could be Left Field where both starter Angel Pagan and #4 outfielder Gregor Blanco will be free agents. I don't see Pagan returning and while Blanco might have been a candidate to return, the emergence of Gorkys Hernandez late in the season could signal the end of Blanco's tenure with the team. The Giants will look to Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson to top the list of potential Opening Day outfielders. I've written about this before, but let me say again, I am not excited about this plan as I do not see either Parker or Williamson as an everyday option and I do not favor a platoon scenario for a position they will need to be a significant contributor to the offensive production.
Parker batted .236 with 5 Home Runs and 14 RBI in 127 at bats in 2016. He also struck out 44 times (35%). As a left-handed batter, his splits would suggest a platoon as he hit .289 against righties and only .108 against lefties.
Williamson hit .223 with 6 Home Runs and 15 RBI in 112 at bats in 2016. His strikeout percentage was only slightly better striking out 35 times (31%). A right-handed batter, Williamson actually fared better against righties hitting .239 while hitting only .212 against lefties.
A possible question that could be asked here is, if the Giants had any confidence in either Parker or Williamson as a starter, why didn't they win the job out of Spring Training in 2016 and why did the Giants sign Denard Span? I think that was a more forward-thinking move. I believe the Giants knew Pagan would not be back in 2017 and signing Span in 2016 allowed them to make a more seamless transition rather than having to replace their Center Fielder this year. So I do not question that move as there was a more long-term plan in place. That said, I do not believe either Parker or Williamson is the answer, but as we've touched on before, there really aren't many options on the free agent market for outfielders.
The Giants also seem committed to Eduardo Nunez being their starting third baseman for 2017. Again, I'm not excited about this. Nunez was a reserve/part-time player from 2010-2015, only becoming a starter for the first time in 2016. For the season he hit .288 with 16 Home Runs, 67 RBI and 40 Stolen Bases, but as a Giant he hit only .269 with 4 Home Runs in 182 At Bats. He also drew only 29 walks in 553 At Bats for the season, which doesn't seem to fit the mold of what the Giants hitters have been. Patient, good plate discipline. There are some encouraging notes though. Nunez hit 3 of his 4 Triples for the season with San Francisco in 50 games (compared to 1 in 91 games with Minnesota). He also had half of his walks in a Giants uniform (14 in 50 games with San Francisco compared to 15 in 91 games with Minnesota). So there is some upside here.
Now, about that elephant. The Giants had the best record in baseball (57-33) at the All-Star game, and then went on to record the 4th worst record in baseball (30-42) in the second half. While there were surely multiple culprits for the Jekyll and Hyde act, a large portion of the blame has rested on the bullpen who blew a league-high 30 saves including 9 in September. Evans said, "an overhaul (of the bullpen) would be a tremendous overstatement." As a fan it is easy to throw your hands up, but when you look closer it actually makes a lot of sense. First, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, and Sergio Romo are all free agents. Lopez at 39 may retire and after his struggles and the fan outcry I don't think there's any way Casilla is back. Romo could be a candidate to re-sign, but on a 13-man staff (5 starters, 8 relievers) let's assume he won't be re-signed. Also, Jake Peavy will be a free agent so let's assume he also won't be back. Who does that leave? Derek Law, Hunter Strickland, Will Smith, and either Steven Okert or Josh Osich (one will start the year in AAA), will definitely be back. George Kontos and Cory Gearrin are both arbitration eligible so I would expect both to be back. That's 6 pitchers. Matt Cain is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and will be paid $21 million in 2017. I expect the Giants will give him every opportunity to win the #5 starter role in Spring Training, but Cain has not been an effective starter since 2012 and Ty Blach has emerged as an intriguing candidate for the starting rotation, especially after his 10/1 start against the Los Angeles Dodgers (opposite Clayton Kershaw) where Blach went 8 innings, allowed 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. If Cain is not in the rotation, he should fill the role of long-reliever. That leaves one open spot and I think we all know what that should be. Say it with me now. CLOSER!!!!!
We've talked about this before, but the potential free-agent targets at closer will include Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, and Mark Melancon. The Giants did explore trading for Davis and Melancon at the trade deadline but were unable to secure a deal. I would expect the Giants to pursue both with Davis being the prize and Melancon being the plan B. Fans could clamor for Jansen as it would double to not only solidify the closer role, but also to weaken the rival Dodgers. I would expect the Dodgers to be very motivated to keep their guy and their contract offer could price Jansen out of the Giants' plans. Chapman is an iffy prospect after Domestic Violence allegations stemming from an incident in October, 2015 and a resulting 30-game suspension to begin the 2016 season. Yes Chapman is an elite closer with his average fastball velocity hitting 99 mph, but the Giants have seemed to make character a priority in their clubhouse and, speaking as a fan, I would hate to see them abandon that approach and replace it with a "win at all costs" attitude.
Despite the way 2016 has ended, I for one am very excited for 2017. The offense returns mostly in tact, and there is plenty of room for improvement. The pitching rotation is very good and, with the addition of Matt Moore, I believe can match up with any other team's 1-4 starters. Yes the areas for improvement are pretty obvious, but they are not so many that is unreasonable to expect that the Giants front office will not be able to address them. So we will hope for a quick Winter and look forward to Spring Training.
