This Wednesday, 12/20/2017, the San Francisco Giants completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays receiving 3B Evan Longoria in exchange for OF Denard Span, IF Christian Arroyo, and two minor league pitchers. The Rays also sent $14.5 million to the Giants to offset the cost of Longoria's contract, so that's something too. Now, for those of you who were set on seeing Arroyo as the Giants' starting 3B in 2018, this probably comes as unwelcome news. But 3B was one of the weaknesses singled out by Giants upper management and this, if nothing else, is a major upgrade. Sure, Longoria was coming off a "down" year in 2017, but still his 20 Home Runs and 86 RBI would have led the Giants. Also, he JUST set a career high in Home Runs with 36 in 2016 so it's not unrealistic to think he can settle somewhere between the two. Longoria also won his 3rd Gold Glove in 2017, meaning he will be playing alongside another 3-time Gold Glove winner in Brandon Crawford, and former winners Joe Panik and Buster Posey. Given that many people feel that Brandon Belt should already have won a Gold Glove at 1B, the Giants should have an All Star caliber defense around the diamond.
Longoria should immediately slot into the 3rd position in the batting order hitting ahead of Posey. Given that Longoria is a career .270 and has never hit above .294 in his career, I'm not sure this is the right spot for him. I still feel like your best "hitter" should be hitting #3, which would suggest that this is where Posey should be. Keep in mind Posey hit into 17 Double Plays in 2017 and Longoria hit into 18 so there's not really an advantage either way. For argument's sake, let's assume that Bruce Bochy will keep Posey as his clean-up hitter. We'll take a look at what this might mean for the lineup in a bit.
As for what the Giants gave up, let's look at Arroyo first. Arroyo tore up the Cactus League and AAA in 2017 earning a callup to the big club on April 24. But Arroyo was clearly overmatched in his first cup of coffee in the Major Leagues hitting only .192 with 3 Home Runs and 14 RBI. He likely would have been a September callup when the rosters expanded, but he suffered a broken hand after being hit by a pitch on July 1 and apparently re-injured the same wrist in a Dominican Winter League game on October 30. So it's unclear really to project what Arroyo could have offered the Giants in 2018. Clearly the Giants felt that addressing this need now was of greater importance than waiting to see what kind of player Arroyo was going to be. As for Span, he overcame a very slow start to the season and finished with respectable numbers hitting .272 with 12 Home Runs and 43 RBI. We can also remember Span for contributing 5 Splash Hits in his 2 years with the Giants including 3 in 2017. However, Span was the worst defensive Center Fielder in all of baseball in 2017 and had already discussed a move to Left Field with Giants coaches for 2018. This was another position of need singled out by Giants management.
So what's next for the Giants? Well, they now have a hole in Center Field, or Left depending on how you look at it, they have an aging Hunter Pence in Right Field, and oh in case you missed it, they traded #3 Starter Matt Moore to the Texas Rangers on December 16, so there may be a need for another Starting Pitcher. Let's look at the outfield first.
The Giants have been linked to several Center Fielders since the end of the 2017 season. Billy Hamilton from the Cincinnati Reds has been discussed. Hamilton is a light hitter who does play stellar defense and steals a ton of bases (career high 59 in 2017), but is a career .248 hitter with a career On Base Percentage of only .298. Does he get on base enough to make a true positive impact on the offense and will his defense offset his inability to get on base? Jackie Bradley from the Boston Red Sox has come up as well. I like this a little better. Bradley is good defensively and doesn't steal bases like Hamilton (only 8 steals in 2017), but hits with a more power (17 Home Runs in 2017 following 26 in 2016). But Bradley is not a for-average hitter with a career average of only .239. He does get on base more than Hamilton with a career OBP of .318, but again you're banking on the improved defense offsetting the lack of offensive production here. More recently with the Yankees trading for Giancarlo Stanton (who the Giants desperately wanted), the Giants have been linked to current Yankees Center Fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Statistically this might be the best move as Ellsbury hit .264 with a .348 OBP, 7 Home Runs, 39 RBI, and 22 Stolen Bases in 2017. But he's the oldest of this trio at 34 years old (Hamilton and Bradley are both 27) and is under contract through 2020. The Giants have a young player by the name of Steven Duggar in the Minor Leagues and is looked at by the organization as the Center Fielder of the future. He was limited to 44 games due to hip and elbow injuries in 2017, but hit .262 with a .365 OBP, 6 Home Runs, 26 RBI and 10 Stolen Bases. If those numbers project to the Major Leagues, that's pretty much interchangeable with Ellsbury, so do you want to block a 24-year old prospect for the next 3 years with a player who is basically identical on paper?
As for the a corner outfield spot, the Giants are again linked to Jay Bruce (seems like this happens every year). Bruce hit .254 between the Mets and Indians in 2017 with 36 Home Runs and 101 RBI. But how will his defense play in AT&T Park? He'll turn 31 at the beginning of the 2018 season. The Giants have also been linked to J.D. Martinez for the past couple of seasons. Martinez hit .303 with 45 Home Runs and 104 RBI in only 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Again, this comes at a sacrifice of defense. Martinez was a good fielder for Detroit as recently as 2015, but has rated as a poor defensive player the past 2 seasons.
While this doesn't seem to help the issue in Right Field, I'd like to see the Giants go with Austin Slater in Left Field for 2018. Slater looked good in San Francisco in 2017 hitting .282 with an OBP of .339, 3 Home Runs and 16 RBI in 34 games. While these numbers don't exactly jump off the page, they're still solid and Slater is only 25.
While the Giants have all but guaranteed that they're not done making deals yet, let's assume for a minute that Longoria is the only acquisition made, and Duggar and Slater will be the starters in Center Field and Left Field for 2018. The lineup could look something like this. I'll also include the player's age and batting hand:
1. CF - Steven Duggar (.262, 6, 26 (Minor League) - 24, bats L)
2. 2B - Joe Panik (.288, 10, 53 - 27, bats L)
3. 3B - Evan Longoria (.261, 20, 86 (Tampa Bay) - 32, bats R)
4. C - Buster Posey (.320, 12, 67 - 30, bats R)
5. RF - Hunter Pence (.260, 13, 67 - 34, bats R)
6. SS - Brandon Crawford (.253, 14, 77 - 30, bats L)
7. 1B - Brandon Belt (.241, 18, 51 - 29, bats L)
8. LF - Austin Slater (.282, 3, 16 - 25, bats R)
Now it's possible that the Giants will swap Panik and Belt in the lineup, though I've always felt like Panik is a more ideal #2 hitter and Belt belongs batting #6 or below, but I'm not a coach so what do I know. It's also possible, considering Stanton hit in the #2 hole in Miami 110 games out of 162, that the Giants could consider hitting Longoria at #2 to split up a couple of your lefties, but then you're left with Panik, Crawford, or Belt as your #3 and I don't see any of them as a #3 hitter. Depending on who they might sign in the outfield and maybe you hit Longoria #2, Posey #3, and the new guy #4 if it's Martinez or Bruce. Currently you have 4 lefties and 4 righties. If they sign Bruce you now have 5 lefties and 3 righties. I don't know if the Giants want to unbalance the lineup like that. Plus, let's say you put Bruce as your #5 and play him in Right Field. Assuming the lineup above, you now have 3 left-handed batters in a row. You could platoon Bruce and Pence, but that's an expensive platoon considering Bruce made $13 million in 2017 and Pence is scheduled to make $18.5 million in 2018.
So there you have it. What do we think? I think this is a lineup that could probably do some damage, especially if some of the guys like Crawford and Belt who had down years play up to their career averages, but they're probably at least 1 and probably 2 bats away from being serious contenders. And that's before we've even looked at the pitching staff. Rest assured, the Giants management has almost guaranteed that another big move is ahead. Based on everything I'm reading right now, it sure sounds like it's going to be Bruce. Stay tuned.
