Johnny Cueto vs. Jordan Zimmermann

Well folks, I'm not one to say "I told you so".  I do act like I know what I'm talking about from time to time, and sometimes I get proven right.  I'd like to talk about something I was asking for way back on October 1, and that was for the San Francisco Giants to pursue Jordan Zimmermann in free agency.  Seriously, I wrote a blog where I said I thought Zimmermann made the most sense.  Go check, I'll wait.  You back?  OK!!!!  They opted instead to sign Johnny Cueto.  Now first let me say I am not totally opposed to that signing.  Cueto was a very solid pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting as recently as 2014, and finishing 4th in 2012.  Zimmermann, on the other hand, finished 5th in 2014 and 7th in 2013.  Measurables are fairly similar, both were born in 1986, Cueto in February and Zimmermann in May.  Cueto stands 5'11" at 220 pounds while Zimmemann is 6'2" and 200.  Cueto has 1 more season of experience amounting to 48 more starts and 328 2/3 more innings pitched.  Both were coming off subpar performances in 2015, Cueto finishing 11-13 with a 3.44 ERA and Zimmermann finishing 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA.  Cueto also just won a World Series with the Kansas City Royals.  But as a Giants fan, the last image I had of Zimmermann was Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS when he pitched 8 2/3 innings of 3-hit, shutout baseball against the eventual World Series champion Giants (he was charged with the game tying run, but truly it was allowed by Drew Storen).  His previous start, on the last day of the 2014 regular season?  Not bad really, all he did was no-hit the Miami Marlins on 104 pitches, walking 1 and striking out 10.  This is not to take anything away from Cueto, whose final game on 2015 was game 2 of the World Series where he pitched a Complete Game against the New York Mets, allowing 2 hits and 1 run (also walked 3 and struck out 4).  My personal opinion was that I would have preferred Zimmermann.

Zimmermann ended up signing a 5-year, $110 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, while Cueto would sign for 6 years and $130 million with the Giants.  I do not know the specific details of the Zimmermann contract, whether he has an opt out, team options, etc., but the per year values are similar, $22 million per year for Zimmermann and $21.66 million per year for Cueto.  Cueto has an opt out following the 2017 season and would receive a $5 million buyout if he exercises that option.  The Giants also have a team option 7th year for $22 million or a $5 million buyout in 2022.  So we're talking about 2 very similar players with 2 very similar contracts.  One I would have preferred and the other the guy that the Giants actually signed. 

Right now each starter has 4 starts, so we're about 1/8 of the way through their respective seasons, and while won-lost records are similar (Zimmermann 4-0, Cueto 3-1), I believe Zimmermann has been the better pitcher by a pretty wide margin.  Consider that Zimmermann allowed his first run in the 6th inning of his fourth game, while Cueto allowed his first run in the 2nd inning of his first game, and allowed 5 runs in the 1st inning of his second game against the Dodgers.  So let's take a look, game by game, how these 2 starters match up.

Zimmermann:      Innings Pitched      Hits      Runs      Earned Runs      Walks      Strike Outs      Pitches
4/8 vs. New York Yankees:         7     2   0   0   3   3   100
4/14 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:          6     6   0   0   2   4   107
4/20 vs. Kansas City Royals:       6.1  7   0   0   1   8   105
4/25 vs. Oakland A's:                   6.2  7   3   1   1   1   102

Cueto:
4/5 vs. Milwaukee Brewers:        7      6   1   1   0   4   96
4/10 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers:    7    10   6   6   2   8   104
4/16 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers:    7.1   3   1   1   2   7   109
4/21 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 7      8   3   3   0   3   83

So here's my takeaway.  First, I find it odd that 1/8 of the way through the season, Zimmermann has only pitched agasint 1 division rival, while Cueto has pitched 3 in-division games already.  That's just weird scheduling that the Giants have already played so many in-division games.  In fact, in 21 games, the Giants have only played 6 non-division games, 3 vs. Milwaukee and 3 vs. Miami.  Cueto has pitched deeper into games thus far.  Cueto has allowed 5 more hits in 2.1 more innings, but he has walked 3 fewer so he actually has a better WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched), 1.094 vs. 1.115.  Both are still excellent as 1.3 is average.  Cueto has 6 more strikeouts.  The biggest separation here is run prevention.  Cueto has a 3.49 ERA while Zimmermann is at 0.35.  ERA, kids, is Earned Runs allowed per 9 Innings Pitched.  So Cueto is allowing 3 1/2 runs per complete game, while Zimmermann is allowing less than 1.  Is that sustainable?  Absolutely not.  At the end of the year, who will have had the better season?  Way too early to tell.  Could we see Cueto vs. Zimmermann in an ultimate showdown?  Well, the Giants and Tigers don't play each other this season so the only way we'll see it is if the Giants and Tigers square off in the World Series (rematch from 2012), but currently the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central at 9-9 while the Giants are 3rd in the NL West at 10-11 so we've got a ways to go.  If Cueto or Zimmermann were traded to a contender in the other league, we could see a regular season matchup, but considering both are in the first years of multi-year deals, it is unlikely either would be traded.

You're probably asking yourself right now, what is the point of all of this?  What is he trying to say?  Why have I wasted the last 20 minutes reading this nonsense?  All valid questions, I assure you.  I guess if nothing else, it is just validation for me that my original preference of the Giants pursuing Zimmermann over Cueto was the right call.  Now if I can just figure out how to get the Giants to put me on the payroll.....

Thanks for reading.