Saturday, March 31, 2018

Giants final 2018 roster....a few days late

Well everyone, we can officially welcome the 2018 Major League Baseball season....two days ago.  The Giants pulled off a couple of 1-0 victories over the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.  But we're not here to talk about that just yet.  Instead we're going to look at the Opening Day roster and the final cuts.

The last week of Spring Training had some extremely bad news.  On March 22, #3 starter Jeff Samardzija was diagnosed with a strained pectoral muscle and will begin the season on the Disabled List.  Manager Bruce Bochy expects him to be back in 3-4 weeks.  This could have been a lot worse considering Samardzija had been receiving an MRI on his shoulder.

Now for the worse news.  On March 23, #1 starter Madison Bumgarner was hit by a line-drive which fractured his left hand.  For those of you keeping score, that's his pitching hand.  Bumgarner underwent surgery on March 24 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.

On top of this, closer Mark Melancon was placed on the Disabled List as he is still recovering from forearm surgery he underwent in September, 2017.

So what did all this mean for the roster?  Well with the injuries to the pitching staff, it was all but assured that Derek Holland was going to make the team.  But to make room for him on the 40-man roster someone was going to have to be designated for assignment.  That someone was outfielder Jarrett Parker.  So the competition for the 2 reserve outfielder spots came down to Gorkys Hernandez, Gregor Blanco, and Steven Duggar.  Blanco and Hernandez won the jobs with Duggar being sent to Sacramento.  This shouldn't come as a surprise despite Duggar's great Spring.  The thinking here is that Duggar will be playing every day in Triple-A and Austin Jackson was going to receive a majority of the starts in center field at least in the early part of the season as the Giants will be facing a number of left-handed starting pitchers.  Their first 2 games were against Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood, both lefties, and will be facing Rich Hill, another lefty, on Sunday.

With Samardzija and Bumgarner being placed on the DL, Roberto Gomez and Pierce Johnson will take their roster spots.  And Reyes Moronta will take Melancon's spot.  The other roster battles were pretty uneventful.  Pablo Sandoval and Kelby Tomlinson are the backup infielders as was expected.  One other note, Rule 5 draft pick Julian Fernandez was placed on the 60-day DL with a strained UCL in his pitching elbow.  Technically an injured player uses an active roster spot so the Giants don't have to offer him back to the Rockies though Fernandez may be looking at Tommy John surgery.  The move to the 60-day DL allowed the Giants to add Blanco to the 40-man roster.  So here's what the roster looks like to start the 2018 season:

Lineup
1. CF - Austin Jackson
2. 2B - Joe Panik
3. RF - Andrew McCutchen
4. C - Buster Posey
5. 3B - Evan Longoria
6. LF - Hunter Pence
7. 1B - Brandon Belt
8. SS - Brandon Crawford

Bench
C - Nick Hundley
IF - Pablo Sandoval
IF - Kelby Tomlinson
OF - Gregor Blanco
OF - Gorkys Hernandez

Rotation
1. LHP - Ty Blach
2. RHP - Johnny Cueto
3. LHP - Derek Holland
4. RHP - Chris Stratton

Bullpen
RHP - Sam Dyson
RHP - Cory Gearrin
RHP - Roberto Gomez
RHP - Pierce Johnson
RHP - Reyes Moronta
LHP - Josh Osich
RHP - Hunter Strickland (Closer)
LHP - Tony Watson

There you have it.  Your 2018 San Francisco Giants.  Play ball!!!!

Monday, March 19, 2018

Giants roster cuts, round 2

Today the Giants optioned or reassigned 15 more players cutting their roster down to 31 (Ryder Jones was optioned to Triple-A, Sacramento on Saturday).  No huge surprises here, though there were some notable names that won't be on the Opening Day roster.  This is going to be more of a quick recap of the cuts since I did a slightly more comprehensive write-up last week.  So here's a list of players who were cut:
Pitchers
Tyler Beede
Roberto Gomez
Joan Gregorio
Derek Law
Andrew Suarez
Jose Valdez

Catchers
Trevor Brown
Justin O'Conner
Hector Sanchez

Infielders
Orlando Calixte
Chase d'Arnaud
Kyle Jensen

Outfielders
Chris Shaw
Austin Slater
Mac Williamson

The fact that Beede and Suarez were part of the cuts doesn't come as a major surprise.  Both were competing for the final 2 rotation spots, but both have been outpitched by Chris Stratton, Ty Blach, and Derek Holland.  Calixte and d'Arnaud being cut also isn't that surprising.  Pablo Sandoval and Kelby Tomlinson are the front runners to be backup infielders for Opening Day, but pay attention to Josh Rutledge who is still in camp.  He's pushing Tomlinson, but Tomlinson currently has the trump card of being on the 40-man roster.

Of the outfielders, Williamson is the most surprising name.  He has outplayed Jarrett Parker so one has to think this decision was made for one of two reasons.  The baseball reason is that Williamson completely retooled his swing during the offseason and the Giants would rather have him playing every day in Sacramento to make sure his offensive production is for real than having him on the bench in San Francisco and playing maybe a couple times a week.  The business reason is that Williamson still has a Minor League option left where Parker does not.

One guy I completely forgot about last week is relief pitcher Cory Gearrin.  Gearrin has pitched well in 2+ seasons in San Francisco, including a 1.99 ERA in 68 innings in 2017.  His ERA in Scottsdale so far is 1.29.  So this presents an interesting dilemma.  The Giants currently have 14 pitchers in camp and will likely sport a 12-man pitching staff on Opening Day.  We know that Will Smith won't be back until May, so who is the odd man out?  Will the Giants stash Derek Holland in Sacramento rather than keeping him on the roster as a long-reliever?  Holland can exercise an opt-out by 3/24.  Would he do that if it's known he won't make the big club?  Would the Giants rather send down Blach or Stratton (who do have Minor League options) and keep Holland in the fold?  Are the Giants seriously considering keeping Julian Fernandez just so they don't have to send him back to the Rockies?  Fernandez has pitched better in the past week, but his ERA is still a robust 18.56.  What happens when Smith is ready to return to the club?  Who gets sent down to Sacramento?  Josh Osich still has a Minor League option, but he is still sporting a 0.00 ERA in Scottsdale.

The Giants play 4 more games in Arizona before heading to Sacramento for an exhibition game against the Triple-A River Cats and then heading back to the Bay for 3 against the Oakland A's.  They open the season on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on 3/29.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Baseball season is so close!!!!

Yesterday the San Francisco Giants made their first round of roster cuts, trimming the Spring Training roster from 60 players to 47.  No real notable names heading back to Sacramento.  The only two that were realistically fighting for a Major League spot were left-handed relief pitcher Steven Okert and infielder Miguel Gomez.

Okert isn't a huge shock considering the Giants really only had room for maybe one other lefty out of the bullpen after signing Tony Watson in February.  Will Smith is expected to be back from elbow surgery in May and Josh Osich has looked great this Spring allowing 0 earned runs over 5 games with 6 strikeouts in 4.2 innings.  Given the likelihood that either Ty Blach or Derek Holland could end up as a long reliever if they're not in the starting rotation, it's possible the Giants will feature 4 lefties in the bullpen once Smith returns, so I'm not surprised to see Okert being sent down.

Miguel Gomez was in competition for one of the backup infield positions and started off Spring very hot, sporting an average of .571 on February 26.  But he's cooled off considerably going only 3 for 22 since then and seeing his average fall to .241.  The Giants have a lot of names in camp that can play middle infield including Josh Rutledge, Chase d'Arnaud, and Orlando Calixte, and all 3 are hitting above .300 so far.  All 3 of these players are non-roster invitees meaning that the Giants would have to remove a player from the 40-man roster to add one of these guys which is why I still think Pablo Sandoval and Kelby Tomlinson are the most likely to make the Major League roster as reserve infielders, even though Tomlinson is currently only hitting .259.

No outfielders were cut so the Giants still have 10 in camp.  Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, and Hunter Pence are all locks to make the team, and with the Giants only planning on carrying 5 outfielders you have 7 players competing for 2 spots.  Steven Duggar has looked great hitting .300 with 4 home runs over 30 at-bats.  Still, considering he's only played 13 games above AA ball, I think it's more likely he starts the year in Sacramento but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in a Giants uniform before this year is done.  Mac Williamson re-tooled his swing over the Winter and the results have been dramatic.  Williamson is hitting .378 with 4 home runs over 37 at-bats.  The only hang-up on Williamson is that he has one more minor league option left so expect him to also start the year in Sacramento.  But with the success both these players are having, is it possible we're seeing two starting outfielder for the 2019 season?  Both Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence are free agents after this season and it would be great to find in-house replacements for both.  As for the other 5, Gregor Blanco is the only one having a standout Spring.  Both Austin Slater and Gorkys Hernandez are hitting below .200.  Chris Shaw is hitting well, but will likely start in Sacramento for more seasoning.  Jarrett Parker hasn't done anything to establish himself but he has no minor league options left so unless the Giants are willing to risk losing him to another team, expect him to make the Major League roster as a reserve.  For the final spot, I like Gregor Blanco here.  He's having a great Spring, can play good defense at all 3 outfield spots, and is left-handed which balances out the all-righty trio of McCutchen, Jackson, and Pence.  Hernandez is out of minor league options but I can't see him making the team based on his numbers.  If he does it will be a clear business decision by the Giants team rather than based on performance.

So as far as the roster goes, I think we're going to see the Giants break camp with the following position players:
C - Buster Posey
C - Nick Hundley
1B - Brandon Belt
2B - Joe Panik
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Brandon Crawford
IF - Pablo Sandoval
IF - Kelby Tomlinson
LF - Hunter Pence
CF - Austin Jackson
RF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Gregor Blanco
OF - Jarrett Parker

We're only going to spend a little time on pitchers because at this point the staff is still up in the air.  We can probably make some educated guesses though.  The Giants will carry 12 pitchers as they normally do.  Sometimes they break camp with 13 depending on how many games they play before a day off, but they will have 2 off days within their first 9 games so 12 should be fine.  We know that the top 3 starters will be Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija and I think it's pretty clear that Chris Stratton will be joining them.  Mark Melancon will be the closer with Sam Dyson and Hunter Strickland serving as the top 2 setup guys.  We already talked about the 4 lefties in the bullpen, plus either Blach or Holland will likely be in the starting rotation.  So based on my math, there's your 12-man pitching staff.  Julian Fernandez was a Rule 5 draftee meaning he has to spend the year on the 25-man roster or he must be offered back to his original team (the Rockies), so there is an incentive to keep him.  But Fernandez has pitched horribly this Spring.  He currently has a 38.57 ERA (not a typo).  Derek Law is still in camp and pitched well in 2016, but his Spring ERA is 6.75.  Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez were competing for the last 2 rotation spots, but neither has pitched well enough this Spring to distance themselves from Stratton, Blach, or Holland.

So there you go.  We're only about 2 weeks away from Opening Day and we have a pretty good idea as to what the roster will look like for the first game against the Dodgers.  PLAY BALL!!!!!