Yesterday the San Francisco Giants made their first round of roster cuts, trimming the Spring Training roster from 60 players to 47. No real notable names heading back to Sacramento. The only two that were realistically fighting for a Major League spot were left-handed relief pitcher Steven Okert and infielder Miguel Gomez.
Okert isn't a huge shock considering the Giants really only had room for maybe one other lefty out of the bullpen after signing Tony Watson in February. Will Smith is expected to be back from elbow surgery in May and Josh Osich has looked great this Spring allowing 0 earned runs over 5 games with 6 strikeouts in 4.2 innings. Given the likelihood that either Ty Blach or Derek Holland could end up as a long reliever if they're not in the starting rotation, it's possible the Giants will feature 4 lefties in the bullpen once Smith returns, so I'm not surprised to see Okert being sent down.
Miguel Gomez was in competition for one of the backup infield positions and started off Spring very hot, sporting an average of .571 on February 26. But he's cooled off considerably going only 3 for 22 since then and seeing his average fall to .241. The Giants have a lot of names in camp that can play middle infield including Josh Rutledge, Chase d'Arnaud, and Orlando Calixte, and all 3 are hitting above .300 so far. All 3 of these players are non-roster invitees meaning that the Giants would have to remove a player from the 40-man roster to add one of these guys which is why I still think Pablo Sandoval and Kelby Tomlinson are the most likely to make the Major League roster as reserve infielders, even though Tomlinson is currently only hitting .259.
No outfielders were cut so the Giants still have 10 in camp. Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, and Hunter Pence are all locks to make the team, and with the Giants only planning on carrying 5 outfielders you have 7 players competing for 2 spots. Steven Duggar has looked great hitting .300 with 4 home runs over 30 at-bats. Still, considering he's only played 13 games above AA ball, I think it's more likely he starts the year in Sacramento but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in a Giants uniform before this year is done. Mac Williamson re-tooled his swing over the Winter and the results have been dramatic. Williamson is hitting .378 with 4 home runs over 37 at-bats. The only hang-up on Williamson is that he has one more minor league option left so expect him to also start the year in Sacramento. But with the success both these players are having, is it possible we're seeing two starting outfielder for the 2019 season? Both Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence are free agents after this season and it would be great to find in-house replacements for both. As for the other 5, Gregor Blanco is the only one having a standout Spring. Both Austin Slater and Gorkys Hernandez are hitting below .200. Chris Shaw is hitting well, but will likely start in Sacramento for more seasoning. Jarrett Parker hasn't done anything to establish himself but he has no minor league options left so unless the Giants are willing to risk losing him to another team, expect him to make the Major League roster as a reserve. For the final spot, I like Gregor Blanco here. He's having a great Spring, can play good defense at all 3 outfield spots, and is left-handed which balances out the all-righty trio of McCutchen, Jackson, and Pence. Hernandez is out of minor league options but I can't see him making the team based on his numbers. If he does it will be a clear business decision by the Giants team rather than based on performance.
So as far as the roster goes, I think we're going to see the Giants break camp with the following position players:
C - Buster Posey
C - Nick Hundley
1B - Brandon Belt
2B - Joe Panik
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Brandon Crawford
IF - Pablo Sandoval
IF - Kelby Tomlinson
LF - Hunter Pence
CF - Austin Jackson
RF - Andrew McCutchen
OF - Gregor Blanco
OF - Jarrett Parker
We're only going to spend a little time on pitchers because at this point the staff is still up in the air. We can probably make some educated guesses though. The Giants will carry 12 pitchers as they normally do. Sometimes they break camp with 13 depending on how many games they play before a day off, but they will have 2 off days within their first 9 games so 12 should be fine. We know that the top 3 starters will be Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija and I think it's pretty clear that Chris Stratton will be joining them. Mark Melancon will be the closer with Sam Dyson and Hunter Strickland serving as the top 2 setup guys. We already talked about the 4 lefties in the bullpen, plus either Blach or Holland will likely be in the starting rotation. So based on my math, there's your 12-man pitching staff. Julian Fernandez was a Rule 5 draftee meaning he has to spend the year on the 25-man roster or he must be offered back to his original team (the Rockies), so there is an incentive to keep him. But Fernandez has pitched horribly this Spring. He currently has a 38.57 ERA (not a typo). Derek Law is still in camp and pitched well in 2016, but his Spring ERA is 6.75. Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez were competing for the last 2 rotation spots, but neither has pitched well enough this Spring to distance themselves from Stratton, Blach, or Holland.
So there you go. We're only about 2 weeks away from Opening Day and we have a pretty good idea as to what the roster will look like for the first game against the Dodgers. PLAY BALL!!!!!
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