The 49ers have failed Trey Lance

Yesterday, August 23, 2023, the 49ers officially named Sam Darnold the backup quarterback for the upcoming 2023 season. While the announcement itself wasn't exciting, the result of this announcement was very impactful. That being, Trey Lance, who was the #3 overall draft pick in 2021 and whom the 49ers gave up 3 consecutive 1st round picks (in 2021, 2022, and 2023) and a 3rd round pick in 2022 to move up to select, is now the #3 quarterback in San Francisco and could be traded before the end of August. This is a monumental failure by the 49ers coaches and front office, but they have not failed as a team. In an interesting twist, Brock Purdy, the 49ers 7th round pick in the 2022 NFL draft (the 262nd overall pick and final pick in the 2022 draft earning him the title of Mr. Irrelevant) has exceeded all possible expectations and won the starting job outright in San Francisco. So, the failed selection of a quarterback has not hurt the team's success. 

This is not typical as a number of teams who have drafted quarterbacks in the 1st round only to see them not pan out have historically struggled to find success after that draft. See the Las Angeles Chargers (then San Diego) and Ryan Leaf, the Las Vegas Raiders (then Oakland) and JaMarcus Russell, the Detroit Lions and Joey Harrington, the list goes on. The 49ers are on that list as well. In 2005, the 49ers opted to select Alex Smith with the #1 overall pick instead of Aaron Rodgers. In 50 starts (54 games overall) from 2005 through 2010, Smith led the 49ers to a 19-31 record, threw 51 touchdowns and 53 interceptions, and never recorded a 3,000+ yard season. Rodgers, meanwhile, got to sit behind Brett Favre from 2005 through 2007, becoming the starter in 2008. Rodgers won his first (and to this point, only) Super Bowl in 2010 and his first of 4 MVP awards in 2011. The 49ers did not have a winning record until the 2011 season which was Jim Harbaugh's first with the team.

Throughout the 2021 draft process, the speculation was that the 49ers were going to draft quarterback Mac Jones out of Alabama. Jones seemed to fit the types of quarterbacks Shanahan had worked with in the past: Matt Schaub in Houston, Kirk Cousins in Washington, Brian Hoyer in Cleveland, and Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Shanahan even admitted in a 2022 interview on the I Am Athlete podcast that Jones and Lance were the ones he really wanted. In the end they went with Lance. According to Shanahan, "We ended up going with Trey because of what we believed he could do for our team, and the upside of him..." So, in the end, how did this go so wrong?

This is not Shanahan's first experience working with a quarterback with a comparable skill set to Trey Lance. In 2012 while the offensive coordinator with the Washington Commanders (then Redskins), the team selected Robert Griffin III with the #2 overall selection. Griffin won the 2011 Heisman Trophy and was unanimously expected to be the #2 quarterback taken in 2012 after Andrew Luck. Sadly, Griffin's career would be cut short by injuries and Shanahan (along with his father, Mike Shanahan, who was the head coach) was ultimately fired by Washington following the 2013 season. The coaching staff came under heavy criticism for the way they had handled Griffin. Specifically in 2012, Griffin would injure his right knee in a December 9 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Griffin would stay in the game for several plays before leaving the game. It was confirmed that Griffin had a Grade 1 LCL sprain and would miss just 1 week before returning to the lineup. It was later revealed on January 6, 2013, that Dr. James Andrews had not cleared Griffin to return post-injury to the December 9 game. Griffin would then re-injure his knee in an NFC wild card game against the Seattle Seahawks requiring surgery to repair the LCL and ACL. Griffin would never be the same and would be out of the league following the 2020 season. 

I bring up the case of Griffin because I think it is relevant to how the 49ers have handled Trey Lance. In Lance's rookie season, Shanahan opted to use him mostly in RPO (Run Pass Option) plays and designed runs. As a result, Lance suffered a Grade 1 knee sprain in a game against the Arizona Cardinals on October 10, 2021. In 2022 in the 2nd game of the season against the Seattle Seahawks, Lance would suffer a fractured and dislocated ankle on a run up the middle. It stands to reason that this was a designed run. Here's a link to the play from Highlight Hell, you be the judge: (854) Trey Lance full injury sequence vs. Seahawks - YouTube. In an interview on August 24, 2023, on the Murph & Mac show on KNBR, general manager John Lynch stated, "We didn't tailor an offense that highlights a lot of the things that Trey is able to do." While Lynch was saying this to illustrate how well Lance had played and how much he's grown as a pro, I think it illustrates an obvious problem. You have a quarterback who has a unique skill set. Yes, the quarterback position is still largely a drop back and pass league, but over recent years you have seen an influx of quarterbacks who are better athletes and who can use their running ability to add a different layer to an offense. In 2022, 5 quarterbacks rushed for over 700 yards. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears) topped the list with 1,143 yards. This is the 2nd highest rushing total for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. The only player with more? Lamar Jackson who rushed for 1,206 yards in 2019. Jackson also coincidentally won the MVP in 2019. The other quarterbacks who rushed for over 700 yards in 2022? Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), and Daniel Jones (New York Giants). Of those 5 teams, only the Bears failed to make the playoffs and Hurts led the Eagles to the Super Bowl. In a losing effort, Hurts was by far the best player on the field. For you fantasy football players, Hurts put up 41.16 fantasy points in the Super Bowl (completed 27 of 38 passes, 304 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns). This was good for the 2nd best fantasy output in any Super Bowl. The only player with more? Steve Young who put up 41.9 fantasy points in Super Bowl XXIX in 1995. Speaking of Steve Young, do you know who his offensive coordinator was in that Super Bowl season? Mike Shanahan.

To return to what Lynch said, it seems ridiculous that you wouldn't tailor an offense to maximize Lance's skill set. Isn't that what you're supposed to do as a coach? Shanahan is regarded as one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, but the only plays you could come up with for Lance are designed runs up the middle? And if you're not going to create plays for the player, why draft the player in the first place when there was another in Mac Jones who would better fit the system that you currently have? While the team has found success with Jimmy Garappolo and Brock Purdy since Lance was drafted, demoting him to the #3 quarterback is certainly a failure by this coaching staff. They threw him into the fire without putting him into a position to be successful. And now it remains to be seen whether this highly regarded prospect will be able to find success with another team or if he will follow Robert Griffin III and be out of the league. As it stands, the 49ers could trade him before the end of August which would be in the best interest of both the team and the player. However, in the same KNBR interview, Lynch said, "The most likely option is that he's here...Our focus is on Trey getting back here and us being the best football team." Keeping Trey Lance as your #3 quarterback does not help the 49ers and it most certainly does not help Trey Lance as he will likely not see the playing field unless the 49ers experience a catastrophic rash of injuries. To be fair though, that's exactly what happened last year when Lance was injured in week 2 and then Garappolo was injured in week 13. I suppose if history repeats itself (unlikely), Lance could get some playing time.

All this is to say, I hope Lance can find his footing in the NFL. As a 49ers fan, I do have an affinity for all 49ers players. I wanted Jalen Hurd to be able to play and to find success in the NFL. For those of you who are asking, Jalen Hurd was a 3rd round draft pick by the 49ers in 2019. During the 2019 preseason, he suffered a fracture in his back and missed the entire 2019 season. He then suffered a torn ACL during practice in 2020 and missed the entire 2020 season. He then suffered another knee injury that cost him the entire 2021 season. He was then signed by the New England Patriots in 2023, but suffered another injury in training camp and officially announced his retirement on August 1, 2023. While we as 49ers fans can celebrate the team's success and the incredible story that is Brock Purdy, it does not change the fact that the 49ers have failed Trey Lance.

The San Francisco Giants and the 2023 Trade Deadline

Note: I began this article on August 3, 2023. It is now August 9, 2023. All information was as accurate as possible at time of writing, though small notes have been made where new information needed to be added.

I’ve had to wait a few days to write this as I’ve been out of town for work, but it is finally time to sit and address what the San Francisco Giants did at the trade deadline. They did…nothing??? Wait, that can’t be right. Hang on (shuffling papers…) Nope, they did nothing. To be fair, they did make a trade on July 31 acquiring A.J. Pollock and Mark Mathias from the Seattle Mariners for cash considerations or a player to be named later. What impact will those 2 players have on the Giants push for the playoffs? Probably not much. Pollock was hitting .173 at the time of the trade (has gone 0 for 6 since the trade and was placed on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain today) and Mathias is a utility infielder that was sent to AAA Sacramento after the trade (Mathias was called up to the major league club on 8/6/23 and Casey Schmitt was optioned back to AAA Sacramento). We’ve spent weeks hearing arguments whether the Giants were going to be buyers or sellers at the deadline. In the end they ended up being neither.

President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi has been telling us that the Giants were going to be aggressive at the deadline. They were also looking at middle infield options. So…Mark Mathias is your aggressive addition? I can get on board with the thought process that the Giants didn’t want to make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. I think there are plenty of young players that the team and the fan base can get excited about and trading any of those pieces would have been the wrong choice in my opinion. But there were plenty of veteran options you could have dealt to acquire more young talent. Wilmer Flores has been one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball since June 1. In the months of June and July, Flores hit .380 with a 1.110 OPS. There was only 1 player that had a higher OPS during that time. You might have heard of him. Shohei Ohtani? As of writing, Flores is hitting .310 on the season with 15 home runs. Surely, he would have netted something in a trade. Pitching is always valued more at the trade deadline, but hitters do have some value. The Giants made their own trade for a hitter as recently as 2021 when they traded Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian to the Chicago Cubs for Kris Bryant. Canario is currently the #10 prospect in the Cubs organization and Kilian is #16.

When asked about the lack of movement, Giants manager Gabe Kapler said, “I think the biggest signal it sends to the clubhouse is we believe in them. We believe this is a good group capable of going to the postseason and making a deep postseason run.” The team also acknowledged that they would be getting Thairo Estrada back (he was activated from the injured list on Saturday, 8/5) and could be getting injured outfielder Mitch Haniger back by the end of August. These players could be contributors in the playoff push, but it’s hard to think that these two players will dramatically improve a team that is currently 20^th in the league in combined batting average at .240 and 23^rd in OPS at .708. For reference, there are 30 teams, so they are bottom 3^rd in both categories.

While we’re talking about believing in players, let’s talk about how the Giants used Casey Schmitt. Schmitt was called up from AAA Sacramento on May 9 and made an immediate impact hitting home runs in 2 of his first 3 games, including in his debut. Unfortunately, he has struggled since then seeing his batting average drop to .205 and 0 home runs since those initial 2 in May. He also has 51 strikeouts and 10 walks in 218 plate appearances so he’s basically striking out 1 out of every 4 plate appearances and drawing a walk in 1 out of every 20. Admittedly that’s not ideal, but if a player is struggling, isn’t it the coaches’ and manager’s job to help figure out the issue and work with a young player to overcome it? Instead, the Giants decided to play guys like David Villar, Brett Wisely, and Isan Dias at second base. When Brandon Crawford got hurt, did they let Schmitt step in and take those reps at shortstop? Nope, they called up Marco Luciano. Luciano did pretty well in his 4 games, hitting .273, but he also struck out 5 times in 11 at bats and only walked once. So, to compare that to Schmitt’s performance, he struck out 1 out of every 2 at bats and walked 1 out of every 10. Wisely has hit .175 over his 51 games and Villar has hit only .145 over 46 games, though he is slightly more of a power threat having hit 5 home runs over 124 at bats. Diaz got his first and only hit as a major leaguer on August 5 and is hitting .053. So, were any of those 3 actually improvements over what Schmitt would have given you? Arguably no. Mathias got a hit in his first game with the Giants on August 7 and drove in 2 runs in an 8-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Overall, he’s hitting .228 on the season.

So that’s where we are with the Giants in 2023. They are currently 10 games over .500 at 62-52 and trail the Dodgers in the NL West by 5 games. They are also tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the top Wild Card spot and lead the Chicago Cubs by 3 games for the final Wild Card. This team is definitely in the playoff hunt, but I would feel a lot better about their chances had they made some kind of move at the deadline. And I certainly can’t finish an article without taking a dig at the Colorado Rockies who currently sit as the worst team in the National League at 45-69 and are the 3^rd worst in all of baseball. Only the Kansas City Royals (37-79) and Oakland A’s (33-82) have worse records.

Just for a bit of fun, I wanted to look at some of the important trade deadline acquisitions the Giants have made over the years. I think Zaidi is missing a key point in thinking that acquisitions made at the trade deadline this year are only going to impact the team in 2023. Obviously, you want to acquire a player that will help your team this year, but hopefully that player can also help your team in the years to come. Historically the Giants have done that, particularly during their World Series title years. But we’re actually going to start the year before in 2009.

July 29, 2009: 2B Freddy Sanchez acquired from Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Tim Alderson.
Sanchez was a former NL batting champion in 2006 and hit .284 for the Giants following the trade which was a marked improvement over the incumbent second baseman, Emmanuel Burriss. After the season, Sanchez signed a 2-year, $11 million contract extension and hit .292 in 2010 playing a key role in the Giants first World Series title since moving to San Francisco. Alderson was a key player to give up. At the time he was the #4 prospect in the Giants organization and #45 in all of MLB at the start of 2009. I remember conversations about whether Alderson or Madison Bumgarner was going to be the next star pitcher for the Giants. Sadly, Alderson never reached the major leagues, never playing above AAA.

July 1, 2010: C Bengie Molina traded to the Texas Rangers for RHP Chris Ray and RHP Michael Main.
It’s not so much the trade itself, but what the trade signified. Molina was entering his 4^th season as the Giants starting catcher in 2010 and he had performed well enough. But with this trade, the Giants officially entered the Buster Posey era. Chris Ray was a decent addition to the bullpen with a 4.13 ERA in 28 appearances with the Giants. Molina retired at the end of the 2010 season.

July 31, 2010: RHP Ramon Ramirez acquired from Boston Red Sox for RHP Daniel Turpen.
Ramirez had a 4.46 ERA in 44 appearances with Boston at the time of the trade, so this move didn’t exactly set the world on fire. However, after joining the Giants, Ramirez had a 0.67 ERA in 25 appearances and was a key member of the bullpen in the playoffs. Ramirez was later traded following the 2011 season to the New York Mets along with OF Andres Torres in exchange for OF Angel Pagan. Pagan was a key contributor to the 2012 World Series team having arguably his best season finishing 32^nd in MVP voting and leading all Major League Baseball with 15 triples.

July 31, 2010: LHP Javier Lopez acquired from Pittsburgh Pirates for 1B John Bowker and RHP Joe Martinez.
Lopez posted a 1.42 ERA in 27 appearances with the Giants following the trade and was one of the most effective lefty specialists in all of baseball during his stint with the Giants. He also retired 16 of 18 batters faced during the playoffs in 2010. Lopez was one of the “Core Four” relievers that were a part of each of the Giants’ 3 World Series championships with Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla so this trade was key to the Giants dynasty. Overall Lopez had a 2.47 ERA in 446 total appearances with the Giants in addition to a 1.38 ERA in 25 playoff appearances and held batters in the playoffs to a .119 batting average.

One caveat to 2010. The Giants made additional moves in August acquiring Mike Fontenot and Jose Guillen in waiver trades. However, the biggest acquisition the Giants made in 2010 was the addition of OF Cody Ross in a waiver claim from the Florida Marlins. Ross hit 2 home runs off Phillies ace Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series and 3 home runs overall to win the NLCS MVP. Halladay was the 2010 NL Cy Young Award winner and led the NL in wins (21), innings pitched (250 2/3), and complete games (9) along with 4 shutouts. He also set a career high in 2010 with 219 strikeouts. Halladay pitched the 20^th perfect game in MLB history on May 29, 2010 against the Florida Marlins and then in his first career postseason appearance, he pitched a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds in the 2010 National League Division Series. This was only the 2^nd no-hitter in postseason history joining Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The Houston Astros have since thrown a combined no-hitter (4 pitchers) in the 2022 World Series against the Phillies.

July 28, 2011: OF Carlos Beltran acquired from New York Mets for RHP Zack Wheeler.
The first trade on the list that didn’t work out, though it was not for a lack of production by Beltran. Beltran hit .323 with 20 extra-base hits in 179 plate appearances with the Giants following the trade. The Giants were leading the NL West by 4 games at the time of the trade but would end up going 6-13 at the beginning of August and ended up missing the playoffs entirely, finishing 8 games back in the NL West and 4 games out of the Wild Card. Beltran would sign with the St. Louis Cardinals following the 2011 season. Meanwhile, Wheeler was the #2 prospect in the Giants organization and #55 in all of baseball at the start of the 2011 season. He has developed into a standout pitcher in the major leagues and is currently pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies.

July 27, 2012: 2B Marco Scutaro acquired from Colorado Rockies for IF Charlie Culberson.
Was there a more important player to the 2012 World Series Champion Giants than Scutaro? Sure, Buster Posey won the MVP that year. Freddy Sanchez had undergone season-ending back surgery in 2012 so the Giants acquired Scutaro who was hitting .271 in 93 games at the time of the trade. In 61 games with the Giants, he hit .362 with 20 extra-base hits. In the playoffs? .328 batting average and .377 OBP. In the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals? Scutaro went 14-for-28. For you math folks, that’s a .500 batting average. Scutaro won the NLCS MVP. The Giants would re-sign Scutaro to a 3-year, $20 million contract and while he did make the All-Star team in 2013, he would play a total of 5 games over the final 2 years of the contract.

July 31, 2012: RF Hunter Pence acquired from Philadelphia Phillies for OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, and RHP Seth Rosin.
Pence did not have as great an impact on the Giants in 2012 as Scutaro. Pence would hit just .219 with 7 home runs in 59 games following the trade, and then only hit .210 in the postseason with 4 RBI in 16 games. But do you remember the rally speech before Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds? The Giants finished the regular season with a 94-68 record winning the NL West by 8 games over the Los Angeles Dodgers. But they would lose the first 2 games of the NLDS at home against the Reds. Going into Cincinnati and facing elimination, Hunter Pence delivered a rally speech in the dugout before Game 3 and the Giants would proceed to win the next 3 games on the road becoming the first NL team and 8^th in MLB history to come back from a 2-0 hole in a best-of-five series by sweeping 3 games on the road. They also fell to a 3-1 deficit in the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals before winning the next 3 elimination games and going on to sweep the Detroit Tigers in the World Series winning their second championship in 3 years. Pence would return in 2013 with a strong season hitting .283 with 27 home runs, 35 doubles, 99 RBI and 22 stolen bases. The Giants would sign Pence to a 5-year, $90 million deal following the 2013 season and Pence would play a key role in the 2014 World Series championship season while also being named to the 2014 All-Star team.

July 26, 2014: RHP Jake Peavy acquired from Boston Red Sox for LHP Edwin Escobar and RHP Heath Hembree.
Matt Cain would struggle in 2014 with an elbow injury. He was ruled out for the rest of the season on July 9, 2014, and would finish with a 2-7 record and a 4.18 ERA. Tim Lincecum would pitch his 2^nd no-hitter against the San Diego Padres on June 25, 2014, but was eventually moved to the bullpen. So, the only reliable starting pitchers for the Giants in 2014 were 18-game winner Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, and Ryan Vogelsong. The Giants needed reinforcements for their starting rotation. Enter Jake Peavy. Over 12 starts following the trade, Peavy would post a 2.17 ERA and finish 6-4 with the Giants before making 4 more starts in the postseason. The Giants would re-sign Peavy to a 2-year, $24 million deal following the 2014 season, but it did not lead to success. Peavy would go on to a 13-15 record in those 2 years and finished with a 3.97 ERA as a member of the Giants. His final year in the Major Leagues was 2016 and he officially announced his retirement in 2019. At the time, the Giants paid a steep price for Peavy. Escobar was the #2 prospect in the Giants organization and #56 in all of baseball while Hembree was the #7 prospect with the Giants. Escobar never developed, but Hembree became a solid middle reliever with Boston.

August 1, 2016: LHP Matt Moore acquired from Tampa Bay Rays for 3B Matt Duffy, SS Lucius Fox, and RHP Michael Santos.
Moore was the #2 prospect in all of baseball at the start of 2012 and had established himself as a solid starter by the time he joined the Giants. Moore had a 4.08 ERA with the Rays and pitched to an identical 4.08 ERA in 12 starts with the Giants. Moore would make 1 start with the Giants in the postseason starting Game 4 of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched 8 innings allowing only 2 hits, 1 earned run and struck out 10. Unfortunately, the Giants bullpen would blow the game with 5 pitchers allowing 4 runs in the 9^th inning. The Cubs would win the game and the series on the way to their first World Series Championship since 1908. The Giants gave up significant resources to acquire Moore. Duffy had finished 2^nd in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2015, while Fox was the Giants’ #4 prospect and Santos their #19 prospect.

August 1, 2016: LHP Will Smith acquired from Milwaukee Brewers for C Andrew Susac and RHP Phil Bickford.
Smith excelled in a setup role with the Giants bullpen posting a 2.95 ERA and 11 holds in 26 appearances following the 2016 trade. He averaged 12.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. Smith was one of the relievers that blew Game 4 of the NLDS mentioned above. Smith would miss the entire 2017 season and part of 2018 following Tommy John surgery but came back in 2019 as one of the top closers in the game and made the NL All-Star team. In 3 seasons with San Francisco, Smith was 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 143 appearances and had 48 saves. He would sign with the Atlanta Braves following the 2019 season and is currently pitching with the Texas Rangers. As for the players the Giants gave up, Susac was once considered the Giants’ catcher of the future but has only played in 27 games at the Major League level following the trade. Bickford was the #3 prospect in the Giants organization at the time of the trade but did not appear in his first Major League game until 2020. He is currently with the New York Mets organization.

 

As 2016 was the last time the Giants appeared in the playoffs until 2021, those are the last trades we’re going to cover. If you're looking forward to the playoff push, leave me a comment and let me know. Who's your team? Did they make any moves that you liked? That you didn't like? Or are you completely checked out and looking forward to preseason football? Thanks for reading.