The 49ers have failed Trey Lance

Yesterday, August 23, 2023, the 49ers officially named Sam Darnold the backup quarterback for the upcoming 2023 season. While the announcement itself wasn't exciting, the result of this announcement was very impactful. That being, Trey Lance, who was the #3 overall draft pick in 2021 and whom the 49ers gave up 3 consecutive 1st round picks (in 2021, 2022, and 2023) and a 3rd round pick in 2022 to move up to select, is now the #3 quarterback in San Francisco and could be traded before the end of August. This is a monumental failure by the 49ers coaches and front office, but they have not failed as a team. In an interesting twist, Brock Purdy, the 49ers 7th round pick in the 2022 NFL draft (the 262nd overall pick and final pick in the 2022 draft earning him the title of Mr. Irrelevant) has exceeded all possible expectations and won the starting job outright in San Francisco. So, the failed selection of a quarterback has not hurt the team's success. 

This is not typical as a number of teams who have drafted quarterbacks in the 1st round only to see them not pan out have historically struggled to find success after that draft. See the Las Angeles Chargers (then San Diego) and Ryan Leaf, the Las Vegas Raiders (then Oakland) and JaMarcus Russell, the Detroit Lions and Joey Harrington, the list goes on. The 49ers are on that list as well. In 2005, the 49ers opted to select Alex Smith with the #1 overall pick instead of Aaron Rodgers. In 50 starts (54 games overall) from 2005 through 2010, Smith led the 49ers to a 19-31 record, threw 51 touchdowns and 53 interceptions, and never recorded a 3,000+ yard season. Rodgers, meanwhile, got to sit behind Brett Favre from 2005 through 2007, becoming the starter in 2008. Rodgers won his first (and to this point, only) Super Bowl in 2010 and his first of 4 MVP awards in 2011. The 49ers did not have a winning record until the 2011 season which was Jim Harbaugh's first with the team.

Throughout the 2021 draft process, the speculation was that the 49ers were going to draft quarterback Mac Jones out of Alabama. Jones seemed to fit the types of quarterbacks Shanahan had worked with in the past: Matt Schaub in Houston, Kirk Cousins in Washington, Brian Hoyer in Cleveland, and Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Shanahan even admitted in a 2022 interview on the I Am Athlete podcast that Jones and Lance were the ones he really wanted. In the end they went with Lance. According to Shanahan, "We ended up going with Trey because of what we believed he could do for our team, and the upside of him..." So, in the end, how did this go so wrong?

This is not Shanahan's first experience working with a quarterback with a comparable skill set to Trey Lance. In 2012 while the offensive coordinator with the Washington Commanders (then Redskins), the team selected Robert Griffin III with the #2 overall selection. Griffin won the 2011 Heisman Trophy and was unanimously expected to be the #2 quarterback taken in 2012 after Andrew Luck. Sadly, Griffin's career would be cut short by injuries and Shanahan (along with his father, Mike Shanahan, who was the head coach) was ultimately fired by Washington following the 2013 season. The coaching staff came under heavy criticism for the way they had handled Griffin. Specifically in 2012, Griffin would injure his right knee in a December 9 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Griffin would stay in the game for several plays before leaving the game. It was confirmed that Griffin had a Grade 1 LCL sprain and would miss just 1 week before returning to the lineup. It was later revealed on January 6, 2013, that Dr. James Andrews had not cleared Griffin to return post-injury to the December 9 game. Griffin would then re-injure his knee in an NFC wild card game against the Seattle Seahawks requiring surgery to repair the LCL and ACL. Griffin would never be the same and would be out of the league following the 2020 season. 

I bring up the case of Griffin because I think it is relevant to how the 49ers have handled Trey Lance. In Lance's rookie season, Shanahan opted to use him mostly in RPO (Run Pass Option) plays and designed runs. As a result, Lance suffered a Grade 1 knee sprain in a game against the Arizona Cardinals on October 10, 2021. In 2022 in the 2nd game of the season against the Seattle Seahawks, Lance would suffer a fractured and dislocated ankle on a run up the middle. It stands to reason that this was a designed run. Here's a link to the play from Highlight Hell, you be the judge: (854) Trey Lance full injury sequence vs. Seahawks - YouTube. In an interview on August 24, 2023, on the Murph & Mac show on KNBR, general manager John Lynch stated, "We didn't tailor an offense that highlights a lot of the things that Trey is able to do." While Lynch was saying this to illustrate how well Lance had played and how much he's grown as a pro, I think it illustrates an obvious problem. You have a quarterback who has a unique skill set. Yes, the quarterback position is still largely a drop back and pass league, but over recent years you have seen an influx of quarterbacks who are better athletes and who can use their running ability to add a different layer to an offense. In 2022, 5 quarterbacks rushed for over 700 yards. Justin Fields (Chicago Bears) topped the list with 1,143 yards. This is the 2nd highest rushing total for a quarterback in the history of the NFL. The only player with more? Lamar Jackson who rushed for 1,206 yards in 2019. Jackson also coincidentally won the MVP in 2019. The other quarterbacks who rushed for over 700 yards in 2022? Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), and Daniel Jones (New York Giants). Of those 5 teams, only the Bears failed to make the playoffs and Hurts led the Eagles to the Super Bowl. In a losing effort, Hurts was by far the best player on the field. For you fantasy football players, Hurts put up 41.16 fantasy points in the Super Bowl (completed 27 of 38 passes, 304 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns). This was good for the 2nd best fantasy output in any Super Bowl. The only player with more? Steve Young who put up 41.9 fantasy points in Super Bowl XXIX in 1995. Speaking of Steve Young, do you know who his offensive coordinator was in that Super Bowl season? Mike Shanahan.

To return to what Lynch said, it seems ridiculous that you wouldn't tailor an offense to maximize Lance's skill set. Isn't that what you're supposed to do as a coach? Shanahan is regarded as one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, but the only plays you could come up with for Lance are designed runs up the middle? And if you're not going to create plays for the player, why draft the player in the first place when there was another in Mac Jones who would better fit the system that you currently have? While the team has found success with Jimmy Garappolo and Brock Purdy since Lance was drafted, demoting him to the #3 quarterback is certainly a failure by this coaching staff. They threw him into the fire without putting him into a position to be successful. And now it remains to be seen whether this highly regarded prospect will be able to find success with another team or if he will follow Robert Griffin III and be out of the league. As it stands, the 49ers could trade him before the end of August which would be in the best interest of both the team and the player. However, in the same KNBR interview, Lynch said, "The most likely option is that he's here...Our focus is on Trey getting back here and us being the best football team." Keeping Trey Lance as your #3 quarterback does not help the 49ers and it most certainly does not help Trey Lance as he will likely not see the playing field unless the 49ers experience a catastrophic rash of injuries. To be fair though, that's exactly what happened last year when Lance was injured in week 2 and then Garappolo was injured in week 13. I suppose if history repeats itself (unlikely), Lance could get some playing time.

All this is to say, I hope Lance can find his footing in the NFL. As a 49ers fan, I do have an affinity for all 49ers players. I wanted Jalen Hurd to be able to play and to find success in the NFL. For those of you who are asking, Jalen Hurd was a 3rd round draft pick by the 49ers in 2019. During the 2019 preseason, he suffered a fracture in his back and missed the entire 2019 season. He then suffered a torn ACL during practice in 2020 and missed the entire 2020 season. He then suffered another knee injury that cost him the entire 2021 season. He was then signed by the New England Patriots in 2023, but suffered another injury in training camp and officially announced his retirement on August 1, 2023. While we as 49ers fans can celebrate the team's success and the incredible story that is Brock Purdy, it does not change the fact that the 49ers have failed Trey Lance.