So my last blog was regarding the Giants infield as compared to other infields in Major League Baseball. Well if you enjoyed that....and even if you dont, it's my blog so I'll write what I want....here's a look at the Giants possible plans for 2016 and hopefully another even year World Series run.
First let's look at the lineup. Surprisingly it's pretty well set. The only hole appears to be in Left Field and possibly their leadoff hitter. Currently the entire infield is under contract, as well as C Buster Posey. Right Field is set with Hunter Pence. The Giants do have a decision to make in Center Field. How much longer can Angel Pagan hold up? Do the Giants pursue a Free Agent? Do they insert Gregor Blanco into the starting lineup? Is there someone in the Minor Leagues who can fill that position with Blanco remaining as the #4 Outfielder? My thinking is they should stick with Pagan, but be sure to give him a good amount of rest. Think about what the Giants did with Barry Bonds in his later years. He rarely, if ever, played a day game after a night game. So I would guess they can take a similar approach with Pagan. He was having a great Spring and a good start to the season before suffering a knee injury and has seen his production fall off since then.
As for Left Field, Nori Aoki has done pretty well this year other than suffering a number of injuries due to erratic pitching. Seriously, he suffered a fractured leg getting hit by a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers, then suffered a concussion getting hit in the head by a pitch against the Chicago Cubs. Speaking of the Cubs, they are also the reason Hunter Pence was lost at the beginning of Spring Training. He suffered a fractured forearm getting hit by a pitch. Both the Cubs and Dodgers appear that they will make the playoffs, so my hatred for both teams increases. Anyway, Aoki has a $5.5 million club option and I feel the Giants will probably pick that up. He seems to be a good spark at the top of the lineup where he batted leadoff to begin the season with Pagan batting 3rd. The only question for me would be whether Aoki or Pagan bats leadoff and which player bats 8th. If the Giants choose not to pick up the option, it will cost them a $700,000 buyout.
Another possibility that has been raised has been should the Giants pursue free agent Alex Gordon from the Kansas City Royals. You may remember him as being stranded on 3rd when the Giants closed the door on the Royals in the 2014 World Series. I think the issue here will be the money. It was largely assumed that Gordon would exercise his 2016 player option to stay with Kansas City. Recently this has become a less certain based on statements made by both Gordon and his agent. Gordon's player option with Kansas City would cost the Royals $12.5 million (possibly $14 million based on performance escalators), which may be a bit steep for a small market team. If the Giants can afford it, Gordon could be a perfect fit in Left Field and at the top of the batting order. It may also benefit the Giants that this is a fairly deep Outfield free agent class. Gordon is rated the 4th best Outfield free agent for 2016 behind Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. So the Giants can wait and see what kind of contracts those 3 might command and determine whether Gordon will be priced out of their future plans. If they decide to go with a more affordable option, Gerardo Parra might be of some interest.
The Giants also have a decision to make with Marlon Byrd who they acquired in a trade on August 20. Byrd has an $8 million option that automatically vests if he reaches 550 at bats. He's close to that. Byrd seems to be a better right handed bat option than Justin Maxwell and could be the right handed half of a Byrd/Aoki platoon in Left Field if the Giants decide to go that way. It makes more sense to sign a player with a higher On Base Percentage and gap to gap power (doubles and triples) rather than a player with great home run power but is going to strike out a lot and not take a lot of walks. This team is just not built that way. So players like Heyward, Upton, or Cespedes probably wouldn't be ideal fits. I like the Gordon idea if the money is right, and I still think a Byrd/Aoki platoon would be a better option than Parra. Let's look at what the lineup could look like if the Giants were able to sign Gordon and decline their option on Aoki:
1. LF Alex Gordon
2. 2B Joe Panik
3. 3B Matt Duffy
4. C Buster Posey
5. RF Hunter Pence
6. 1B Brandon Belt
7. SS Brandon Crawford
8. CF Angel Pagan
Bench:
C Andrew Susac
IF Ehire Adrianza
IF Kelby Tomlinson
OF Gregor Blanco
OF Marlon Byrd
There's also a possibility the Giants could use one of their young prospects as a trade chip. We've seen quite a bit of promise from young players such as Susac, Trevor Brown and Jackson Williams (the Giants have a ton of depth at Catcher), Jarrett Parker, and Mac Williamson.
Now let's talk about the pitching staff. After 3 World Series championships that were largely won because of pitching, to say the Giants biggest need going into the offseason is pitching seems a bit strange. But here we are. There are a number of contracts coming off the board which should afford the Giants the ability to pursue some good pitching options in Free Agency. Here are the expiring contracts:
SP Mike Leake
RP Santiago Casilla
RP George Kontos
RP Yusmeiro Petit
SP Ryan Vogelsong
RP Jeremy Affeldt (retiring)
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Tim Hudson (retiring)
As far as Starting Pitchers, the Giants still have Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Chris Heston. In the Bullpen they still have Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Hunter Strickland. There are also several pitchers on the big league roster who were September callups who could contribute next year. I can see the Giants resigning Casilla and Kontos from this group. I could also see Petit being resigned, but if Matt Cain starts the year in the bullpen rather than the starting rotation it wouldn't make a lot of sense to commit to 2 long-relief pitchers. As much as I enjoyed watching Tim Lincecum pitch since 2007, he is a shadow of the pitcher he used to be. Vogelsong will also always be a great story in San Francisco, but should also probably not be resigned.
2B Marco Scutaro and OF Alejandro de Aza also have expiring contracts which will add additional money the Giants can use to sign a pitcher or 2.
As for additions, the Giants will entertain several of the top pitching Free Agents and the 2nd tier pitchers during the Offseason. David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke (assuming he voids the remainder of his contract with the Dodgers), Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, etc. Of these I think Zimmermann makes the most sense. I think he's the perfect balance of talent and value, and will likely allow the Giants to be more flexible to resign Leake and to carry 6 Starting Pitchers, where Price and Cueto will likely demand larger contracts which would place more pressure on Matt Cain to regain at least some of the form that he showed before signing a massive contract extension. Scott Kazmir could also make a lot of sense as a 2nd tier pitcher as the Giants have expressed significant interest in adding another left-hander to the rotation so MadBum is not the only lefty. So assuming the Giants can sign Zimmermann and sign Leake or Kazmir for the 3rd spot, here's what the starting rotation could look like.
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Jordan Zimmermann
3. Mike Leake/Scott Kazmir
4. Jake Peavy
5. Chris Heston/Matt Cain
That's not bad. Now if the Giants decide to push hard for Price, the domino effect would likely be pushing Peavy, Heston and Cain up one spot in the rotation. I'd love to see a top starter in a Giants uniform, but the reality is Bumgarner is already a bona fide #1. I'd rather see the Giants go for value in the rotation and spend to upgrade a spot in the lineup rather than go all in for another #1 starter.
As far as the bullpen, the Giants have had strong bullpens in all of their championship seasons, but realistically the bullpen can be a revolving door. The Giants have several young arms who can contribute next year including Josh Osich, Michael Broadway, Derek Law, and Cody Hall. There is also speculation that the Giants could pursue a big name closer in the offseason like Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard, or a trade for Craig Kimbrel. Personally I don't like that approach, particularly if you truly feel that Hunter Strickland is your closer of the future.
So there you go. The Giants will have quite a bit of payroll flexibility to improve the parts of the team that need improvement. So let's go 2016!!!!!!
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