Protected Draft Picks

Well folks, time again for another Giants baseball blog.  This one comes with a little frustration from me.  Let me explain why.  Based on their record, the Giants will pick 19th in the Major League Baseball Draft for 2016.  Obviously the MLB Draft is nowhere near as popular as the NFL or NBA Draft, plus is insanely longer than either of those 2 with up to 40 rounds.  That's actually even shorter than it used to be.  Remember Mike Piazza?  He was drafted in the 62nd round by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1988.  That turned out to be a pretty good pick, considering it was only done as a favor by Tommy Lasorda who was a childhood friend of Piazza's father....unless you're a Giants fan, then F*@! Mike Piazza!!!!  1993, soon to be named Rookie of the Year Piazza hits 2 Home Runs on the final day of the season and the Dodgers beat the Giants 12-1 to eliminate them from the playoffs despite the Giants winning 103 games in the last great pennant race.  103 wins is the most wins by a team to not make the playoffs, but I digress.  That is an argument for another time.  Back to the point.

Where was I?  Oh yes, the MLB Draft.  So the Giants select 19th which is fine I suppose.  But I just read today that this is not a protected draft pick.  The Giants would have needed to lose 9 more games for the draft pick to be protected as only picks 1-11 are protected.  Believe me, I am not wishing that the Giants had lost 9 more games this season.  But it certainly does throw a bit of a wrench into what I had previously written I would like to see the Giants do.

For those of you who do not know how the protected vs. non-protected draft pick effects free agency (and until maybe 5 minutes ago I was among you), here's the basics.  For a free agent, their current team has first shot at re-signing them (or Exclusive Negotiating Rights).  The team must decide whether to submit a qualifying offer to the player.  If the free agent declines the qualifying offer and opts for free agency, the team that signs them will lose their first round pick, unless the team has one of the 10 worst records from the previous season, in which case the team loses a 2nd round pick.  So what does this mean to the Giants who will inevitably be looking for pitching?  If they sign Jordan Zimmermann (my preference) or Zack Greinke (if he voids the remainder of his current contract with the Dodgers), they lose the 19th pick in the 2016 MLB Draft.  If they sign a player who was traded at the 2015 trade deadline, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, etc. they keep the pick.

I wrote previously that I think Kazmir would be a good fit as the #3 starter if the Giants decide not to pursue re-signing Mike Leake.  But I thought Zimmermann would be the crown jewel if they could sign him.  Now that they risk losing a 1st round draft pick, I think they might want to look elsewhere.  I also wrote that I think David Price will (no pun intended here) price himself out of the Giants plans.  So that brings my focus to Johnny Cueto.

So what would the Giants get with Cueto?  Well, they would get a player who has shown brilliance in his career, and a player who will be 30 when the 2016 season begins.  His 2 best seasons were 2012 when he went 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA, and 2014 when he went 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 242 Strikeouts in 243 2/3 Innings Pitched.  In 2014 Cueto was an All-Star and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting.  Cueto made $10 million in both 2014 and 2015, but is coming off a bit of a down year (11-13, 3.44 ERA) so Cueto may not warrant much of a salary increase, if at all.  He has also not performed well in the Postseason going 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA in 4 Postseason starts with Cincinnati and Kansas City.  The Giants do seem to have a habit with picking up players coming off down performance years, though they are not always success stories (Aubrey Huff - 2010 vs. McGehee - 2015).  So maybe this move makes sense.  Let's revisit how this could potentially set up the Giants rotation for 2016:
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Mike Leake/Scott Kazmir
4. Jake Peavy
5. Matt Cain/Chris Heston

That would be a pretty solid rotation, right?  But for historical reasons, let's look at the Giants history of picking 19th.  They have done it 4 times with those selections being:
Rob Dressler - 1972
Terry Lee - 1974
Eric Christopherson - 1990
Tony Torcato - 1998

Of those 4, only Dressler (82 games) and Torcato (43 games) made it to the Majors.  So maybe it wouldn't be so bad to give up the 19th pick.  On the other hand, let's look at some other 19th overall picks from years past:
Roger Clemens - 1983
Bobby Grich - 1967
Alex Rios - 1999
Mike Scioscia - 1976
Shannon Stewart - 1992
James Loney - 2002
Shelby Miller - 2009
Brian Bohanon - 1987
Ron Robinson - 1980 (on a personal note, I met Ron Robinson while I was working at Silverthorn Resort in 1998)
Sean Burnett - 2000

So maybe there would be a possibility that the Giants could get a good player at 19 (or a guy who should be in the Hall of Fame, again, argument for another time).  The thing you have to weigh is whether you take a chance on an amateur player that he will contribute to your team success down the road, or a known commodity who could contribute to your team success right now.  Wow, that is a tough one.  I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.  So, go Giants in 2016 and thanks for reading.