What's up to all my fellow baseball, and specifically my fellow Giants, fans. So as of today there is a rumor floating around that the Giants have had preliminary talks with the Brewers regarding a trade for Ryan Braun. You might remember if you read my last blog that I voted for Braun on my All-Star ballot. So if Braun were to end up with the Giants, I would be absolutely giddy. But let's look at a potential deal, what it might take to get it done, and what it might mean.
First let's look at some bad surrounding Braun. He is 32, and typically players do not get better as they advance through their 30's. He is owed $76 million over the last 4 years of his contract, through 2020. His performance has seemingly declined over the past 2 seasons. Braun is a .305 career hitter, but his Batting Average slipped to a career low .266 in 2014 and .285 in 2015. His power numbers were also down in those years hitting 19 Home Runs in 2014 and 25 in 2015. There's also that pesky PED suspension he served in 2013.
So those are the bad, let's look at the good. His performance is up in 2016, which could inflate his trade value a bit, but he's hitting .316 and is on pace to 34 Home Runs (11 through 52 games). He is under contract through at least 2020 (mutual option for 2021) and with Angel Pagan scheduled to be a free agent after 2016, Braun would give them a ready-made replacement in Left Field for then next 4 years. Braun lengthens an already deep Giants lineup. Depending on where you bat him (3-6) that will place Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy as your #7 and #8 batters in some order.
What would it take to obtain Braun? Right now the 2 prospects who have been linked to Milwaukee are Tyler Beede and Christian Arroyo. It hasn't been stated that these are the only 2 prospects included in a deal, and I would guess the Giants would need to send 1 or 2 more players to the Brewers in return for Braun. So let's take a look at these 2 players.
Tyler Beede was the Giants' 1st round draft selection in 2014 and is currently their #2 ranked prospect per MLB.com. Beede has not pitched above AA yet in his young career and currently has a 4-3 record with a 3.05 ERA at AA Richmond. Per his scouting report, Beede has 3 plus (above average) pitches. Beede has a 4-seam fastball that he can throw 92-97 mph, and a 2-seam fastball that he can throw 90-95 with some sink generating plenty of ground balls. He also has a changeup and a power curve. Beede had a history of inconsistent control and command while at Vanderbilt. Beede has the potential to be a frontline starter at the Major League level.
Christian Arroyo was the Giants' 1st round selection in 2013 and has also not played above AA. Arroyo is the Giants #1 ranked prospect. Currently at Richmond he is batting .286 with 2 Home Runs and 18 RBI in 57 games. Arroyo is an advanced hitter for his age (21) who makes consistent, solid contact. If Arroyo can be more selective, he projects as a 15 Home Run per year hitter. Defensively, Arroyo has sure hands and a solid arm at Shortstop. He has fringe speed and range, which could lead to a position change to 3rd Base or a corner outfield position.
So why might the Giants be willing to part with these 2 propsects? Arroyo is a pretty easy answer, I think. Arroyo's main position is Shortstop where he is blocked by Brandon Crawford, who is under contract through 2021. What about sliding him over to 2nd Base? Joe Panik is under club control (contract + arbitration) through 2021. 3rd Base? Matt Duffy is also under club control through 2021. If Arroyo does shift to a corner outfield spot, if the Giants do acquire Braun, he is under contract through 2020. Center Fielder Denard Span is under contract through 2019, and Right Fielder Hunter Pence is under contract through 2018. So if he stays with the Giants, Arroyo is truly a man without a position or a clear path to the Majors until 2019 at the earliest.
What about Beede? Well, again Beede is currently the Giants #2 prospect, but 19 of their top 30 are pitchers so the Giants would be dealing from a position of depth there. Notable names in the top 10 include Phil Bickford and Kyle Crick, and #14 prospect Chris Stratton is currently on the Major League roster (though he may be sent back down to AAA Sacramento once Matt Cain is activated from the DL).
All in all, I would really like this trade for the Giants. Even if the price seems a bit steep, Angel Pagan has had issues staying healthy every year in a Giants uniform beginning in 2013. Hunter Pence has been an iron man throughout his career, but not the past 2 seasons, and is not expected back from his hamstring injury until early August. Neither Jarrett Parker or Mac Williamson looks like a Major League ready option at this point. Since Barry Bonds final season in 2007, the Giants have started 39 players in Left Field (as of 6/6/2016, that number may have gone up in the last week, I'm not 100% sure). So Braun, assuming he stays healthy, would definitely give the Giants some stability at a position that has been a black hole for the better part of a decade.
So what do you think? Would you like to see Ryan Braun in a Giants uniform? Let's discuss!!!
Do not want. Will never want. This team has faced enough grief over the PED taint.
ReplyDeleteNo more. Never again.