Hi everyone. So I started writing this a few hours before the trade deadline, and updated it as news became available up to and following the trade deadline at 4 PM Eastern time. So here's my recap.
11:56 AM EST
Well folks, here's another baseball post, which is to say this is primarily a Giants post. We are fast approaching the Major League Baseball non-waivers trade deadline (4 PM Eastern time) and anxiously.....ANXIOUSLY.....awaiting what the Giants will do. This team has been atrocious coming out of the All-Star break going 4-11 and entering August with only a 2 game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers. The primary need pretty much the entire year has been the bullpen (Giants had 18 blown saves as of July 16, most in the Majors), but the Giants have also been looking for an impact bat and a starting pitcher. The need for a bat has been increased with Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy missing time with injuries and the struggles of the Giants hitting with runners in scoring position, especially during this recent stretch. So on Thursday, 7/28, the Giants added.....an infielder? The Giants acquired Eduardo Nunez from the Twins for minor league pitcher Adalberto Mejia who was the Giants' #3 overall prospect. Sure, Nunez was an All-Star (because the Twins had to have an All-Star), and he was hitting a career best .296 with 12 Home Runs, 47 RBI, and 27 Stolen Bases at the time of the trade, but his doesn't really strike me as an impact bat, and he for sure doesn't pitch, so.....
So what have we heard? Well, as of this writing, the Giants are reportedly making a push for Jay Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds. Giants fans might remember him since he just hit 4 home runs in 3 games at AT&T Park just a week ago. So while this might be a case of short memory, I don't particularly like the fit. Here's why.
Jay Bruce has been a Right Fielder pretty much his entire Major League career. Right Field is where Hunter Pence plays. So acquiring Bruce would push one of them to Left Field, with Bruce being the more likely candidate. Bruce played 11 games in Left Field in 2008 (his first Major League year) and 0 since then. Bruce also played 3 games at First Base in 2014, so I suppose you could slot Bruce at First and move Brandon Belt to Left Field, but that would mean one of those bats would be sitting on the bench when Buster Posey gets a start at First Base. Of course, Posey has only played 10 games at First Base this year, which are his fewest games at the position since 2011 when he played in only 43 games. The other issue I have is Bruce hits left-handed and the Giants are already very heavily left-handed. Their regular lineup boasts 4 lefties (Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford) and 1 switch-hitter (Angel Pagan). So adding Bruce doesn't work to balance the lineup. Looking at his current numbers (.265 batting average, 25 Home Runs, 80 RBI), this would seem like a Pat Burrell type addition, which has worked out for the Giants in previous years. Still, I'm not sold. Besides, MLB Trade Rumors is listing the Mets as the favorites to land Bruce, so there's that.
Let's look at the bullpen. At the top of the list is a couple of guys from the Milwaukee Brewers. Will Smith (wait, the guy in Suicide Squad? No, not THAT Will Smith.) and Jeremy Jeffress. I believe the Giants would prefer Smith as he's left-handed and the Giants have been trying to replace Jeremy Affeldt and Josh Osich has not been doing the job (also currently on the DL). Coupled with the struggles of Javier Lopez and the Giants don't have a reliable lefty in the pen. Smith's ERA is up (3.68) and his strikeouts are down (22 in 22 innings) from where they were in 2015, but he still averages more than a strikeout per inning for his career. The Giants might be able to buy low based on his 2016 numbers. Jeffress has been the Brewers' closer this year and has 27 saves, but is not really a strikeout arm with only 35 in 44.2 innings. The Giants also already have their closer in Santiago Casilla, though I'm not sure how comfortable that makes anyone right now. The Giants have apparently also checked in with the Angels about Huston Street. Street is familiar to the Giants from his days with the Rockies and Padres, and while Street is not the closer he was in previous years, he is still only one year removed from a 40 save season in 2015.
So now let's look at the Starters. The Giants are reportedly "not sold" on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain at the back end of the rotation, so if they do make a move it will be for someone who will slot in as the #4 of #5 starter. At the top of the list is Jeremy Hellickson from the Philadelphia Phillies. Hellickson is a former Rookie of the Year (2011) and is currently 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA with the Phillies. The market for Hellickson may be too rich, however, which could knock the Giants out of the mix. Another name to keep an eye on is Hellickson's former teammate with the Tampa Bay Rays, Matt Moore. Moore was an All-Star in 2013 and owns a 7-7 record with a 4.08 ERA. Moore has given up 20 Home Runs this year so that's a concern, but fly-ball pitchers have had success pitching at AT&T park in the past (see Matt Cain). Other names the Giants may be considering are Erasmo Ramirez (Tampa Bay Rays) and Edinson Volquez (Kansas City Royals). Ramirez has pitched primarily out of the bullpen this year, but was a starter in 2015 and had an 11-6 record with a 3.75 ERA. This year he is 7-8 with a 3.96 ERA. Volquez has been down this year, currently with an 8-9 record and a 4.70 ERA. Still, he was an above .500 pitcher in each of the past 2 seasons (13-7 in 2014 with Pittsburgh, 13-9 in 2015 with Kansas City) an dhis ERA has been under 4 in each of those seasons. I'm not sold this would be an upgrade, and Volquez can become a free agent after 2016 ($10 million mutual option or $3 million buyout for 2017), so this would essentially be giving up prospects for a 2-3 month rental.
So what do I think will happen? Well, the Giants don't have an "elite" minor league system, but they do have 2 prospects in the top 100 in Phil Bickford (65) and Christian Arroyo (94). They could also deal Major League talent in either Joe Panik or Matt Duffy (I know, I know, let me finish) which could be offset by the addition of Eduardo Nunez. While not an ideal scenario in my opinion, adding Nunez does offer the Giants some flexibility to deal from the Major League roster. The price for pitching has been pretty steep, so I don't know if the Giants can put together a package for Hellickson or Moore that will be attractive enough for Philadelphia or Tampa Bay to bite. Same goes for Bruce, plus I don't think he's an ideal fit for the Giants anyway. I think the most realistic of all these options would be Smith (again, not THAT Will Smith) or Jeffress, but Milwaukee seems to want to package either Jonathan Lucroy or Ryan Braun with a reliever and the Giants have no interest in either of those players.
So, what does it all mean, you ask. And I answer, it would not shock me that the trade deadline comes and goes with the Giants having exactly the same roster as they did before the deadline. While the Giants do seem to need to make a deal to stay ahead of the teams chasing them, the market seems to be overvaluing pitching and the Giants would have to give up multiple prospects which they have not been historically overeager to do. The Giants will also not make a move simply for the sake of making a move. I'm sure they're doing their homework and will have a plan going into the last 2 months of the season, but I do not honestly see a deal being made.
And as I write this, the Dodgers just acquired Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from the A's and the Reds are on the verge of finializing a trade for Jay Bruce. Great. Well thank you Oakland for screwing over your neighbors yet again!!!!!
3:28 PM EST
The Giants have acquired Will Smith from the Milwaukee Brewers for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac. So let's take a look at that deal.
Smith is a left-handed relief pitcher, which was definitely a need for the Giants. Smith throws a 4-seam and 2-seam/cut fastball about 55% of the time. He also throws a Slider (33%) and a Curve (12%). He also has a Changeup, though per his scouting report it doesn't look like he's throwing it this year. Average velocity on the fastball is 91.6 MPH (90.5 on the 2-seam), which is down from his career averages, though that might have something to do with a knee injury Smith suffered during Spring Training. Get this, Smith suffered the injury while pulling off his cleats. While not quite to the standard of Jeremy Affeldt (Affeldt injury history below), you have to wonder, what is it with the Giants and left-handed relief pitchers who injure themselves in odd, sometimes hilarious ways?
1. Cut throwing hand with knife while separating frozen hamburger patties in 2011. Required surgery to repair nerve damage.
2. Injured knee while playing with his son in 2012.
3. Strains oblique from sneezing in 2013.
4. Injured knee from slipping on platform while jumping into Loon Lake celebrating son's birthday in 2015.
So what did the Giants give up to get Smith? Well, first let's restate what we already said earlier, that the market price for pitching was steep. So first we'll start with Bickford who was the Giants #1 overall prospect and #65 on the Top 100 prospects list. Seems a pretty high price right there for a dude who's probably going to be pitching in the 7th inning. Bickford was the Giants 1st round draft pick in 2015. Bickford has a 4-seam fastball that can hit 98, and a low-90s 2-seam fastball with sink. He has a plus slider if his mechanics are good, and has been developing a changeup during instructional league. Bickford was envisioned as a starter, but some scouts prefer him in the bullpen. He can have trouble maintaining his arm slot, but has electric stuff in short stints, which could project him as a potential closer.
Susac has spent some time in the Majors (35 games in 2014, 52 in 2015), but was blocked at Catcher by Buster Posey and had fallen behind Trevor Brown on the depth chart. The Giants also have a catcher as their #7 overall prospect in Aramis Garcia. So it makes sense to trade Susac while he holds some value. Susac was batting .273 with 8 home runs and 36 RBI at AAA Sacramento and provides Milwaukee with some insurance as they attempt to trade Jonathan Lucroy.
One of the most attractive aspects of the trade is that Will Smith will not merely be a 2-3 month rental for the Giants. He will be eligible for salary arbitration in 2017, but will not become a free agent until 2020 at the earliest. So while this move may be to improve the bullpen this year, the Giants have a potential contributor in their bullpen for the next 3 seasons. I'm OK with this move.
5:03 PM EST
The trade deadline came and went about an hour ago, but news of deals was still being reported, and here's where we find a potential blockbuster deal. The Giants acquire Matt Moore from the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox, and Michael Santos. Matt Moore is a guy who had a ton of potential when he came into the league. Then he underwent Tommy John surgery in January, 2013 and hasn't really been the same pitcher since. But you're paying for the potential that he'll re-find his form given new surroundings and the mastery/sorcery that is pitching coach Dave Righetti. And Moore is under contract for another 3 seasons, so like Smith, he's not just a 2-3 month rental. This guy could potentially be your #4 starter through the 2019 season. I'm excited about this one, even though the Giants did give up quite a bit to get it done.
Oh, Matt Duffy. How far we have fallen since you finished #2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting just last season. Duffy was batting .253 with 4 home runs and 21 RBI in 70 games and has been out since June 19 with an Achilles injury. Coincidentally the injury occurred during a game against Tampa Bay. Yes he was under team control through 2020. But suddenly, doesn't that Eduardo Nunez trade suddenly make a ton more sense? I do have to wonder though, where Duffy will play in Tampa Bay. He's by far played his most games (205) at Third Base, but the Rays have this other dude playing Third named.....oh, I know this....Evan Longoria. I don't see Duffy replacing him straight up. Duffy does have a handful of games at Second (18) and Shortstop (10), but is blocked at both positions by Brad Miller and Logan Forsythe respectively.
Fox was the Giants #4 overall prospect and Santos was their #24 overall prospect. Still, neither had played above A ball yet, so I can live with trading 2 guys who are probably 3+ years away from the Major League club, if they make it all, for a guy who can help you now, AND can potentially help you for the next 3 years while he's under contract.
So that's it. I think the Giants improved, even if they had to sacrifice some future talent to do it. They didn't get a bat, but this doesn't mean they won't. The Giants have historically acquired talent after the deadline who have contributed greatly to their success in both the regular season and postseason. Cody Ross was acquired on August 21, 2010, and would go on to be named the 2010 NLCS MVP and help the Giants win their first World Series title in San Francisco and first overall since 1954. Marlon Byrd was acquired on August 20, 2015 and hit a home run in his first at-bat in a Giants uniform. So don't sleep on more moves to come. Until next time, see you at the ballpark.
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