Wow, I haven't even had time to write about the Andrew McCutchen trade and now comes the news that the San Francisco Giants have signed center fielder Austin Jackson to a 2-year, $6 million deal (could be worth up to $8.5 million with incentives). So we're going to take a look at both of these moves and try to figure out what the lineup could look like. One thing is for sure. The Giants just added a huge amount of length to their lineup by adding three players. Here we go.
So on Monday, January 15, the Giants acquired Andrew McCutchen from the Pittsburgh Pirates for right-handed pitcher Kyle Crick and outfield prospect Bryan Reynolds. McCutchen won the 2013 MVP while with Pittsburgh and finished 3rd for the award in 2012 and 2014, as well as finishing 5th in 2015. McCutchen has a 7-year streak of 20+ home runs including 28 last year. While he doesn't run as much as he used to, he has shown 20+ stolen base speed including a career high of 33 in 2010. Yes, McCutchen will be 31 in 2018, but he will definitely improve the production and defense of the Giants' outfield which ranked at or near the bottom of the league in 2017. Of note here is that McCutchen has one more year in his contract at $14.5 million, but the Pirates are paying $2.5 million of that so the Giants are only on the hook for $12 million. Not bad for a former MVP. What did they give up for him? Well Kyle Crick was a former 1st-round draft pick for the Giants in 2011 and at one point was looked at as comparable to Matt Cain. But Crick struggled with his command in the minors and was eventually moved from a starting role to the bullpen. He made his Major League debut with the Giants last year appearing in 30 games and finishing with a 3.06 ERA. He's a fastball/slider guy mixing in an occasional change-up. Crick could have been in the competition for a bullpen role with the Giants, but at best he was probably going to be a hard-throwing, right-handed 8th-inning guy. Bryan Reynolds was a 2nd-round pick by the Giants in 2016. He played 2017 at single-A San Jose where he hit .312 with 10 home runs and 63 RBI. A switch-hitter, Reynolds can play all three outfield positions, but the Giants viewed him as a Center Fielder. As they see Steven Duggar as their Center Fielder of the future, it's possible that Reynolds didn't fit into the long-term plans for the Major League club.
On to today where the Giants signed Austin Jackson. Now Giants fans don't need to think too far back to remember Jackson. All you need to do is remember the 2012 World Series. Jackson was the starting Center Fielder and leadoff hitter for the Detroit Tigers who faced the Giants. Jackson had possibly his best season that year hitting .300 with 16 home runs and 66 RBI. Jackson struggled from 2014-2016, but had a resurgence with the Cleveland Indians in 2017 hitting .318 with 7 home runs and 35 RBI in 85 games playing mostly against left-handers. I'm guessing he plays mostly full-time to start the season, but could shift into a platoon role if Steven Duggar plays well enough to earn a call-up. While Jackson has played most of his career in Center Field, he also has played games in Left and Right and while his defense at this stage of his career probably grades out as average it's still far better than what the Giants showed in 2017 and not too long ago Austin Jackson was considered one of the best defensive Center Fielders in all of baseball.
So what does this mean the lineup will look like? Because that's really what we're interested in seeing. Well I'm going to assume that Austin Jackson is going to be the leadoff hitter. The Giants have already stated that McCutchen will be playing Right Field and Hunter Pence will shift to Left. Also, it's pretty much assumed that Evan Longoria will hit 3rd in the lineup ahead of Buster Posey. So I'm thinking we look something like this:
1. CF - Austin Jackson (.318, 7, 35)
2. 2B - Joe Panik (.288, 10, 53)
3. 3B - Evan Longoria (.261, 20, 86)
4. C - Buster Posey (.320, 12, 67)
5. RF - Andrew McCutchen (.279, 28, 88)
6. 1B - Brandon Belt (.241, 18, 51)
7. LF - Hunter Pence (.260, 13, 67)
8. SS - Brandon Crawford (.253, 14, 77)
Crawford batting 8th? Well originally I had thought Pence would hit 8th, but I have concerns about putting 2 lefties in a row in Belt and Crawford. Belt has more power potential but Crawford has been a better run-producer in their careers. So maybe Crawford moves up and Belt moves down? I don't know, this is just a prediction. I'm also not sure I like McCutchen at #5, but where else do you hit him? Leadoff and move Jackson to #8? #2 moving Panik to #8 and everyone from Belt to Crawford moving up one? The lineup above seems to make the most sense to me, but I've seen some projections like this:
1. CF - Austin Jackson
2. 1B - Brandon Belt
3. RF - Andrew McCutchen
4. C - Buster Posey
5. 3B - Evan Longoria
6. SS - Brandon Crawford
7. LF - Hunter Pence
8. 2B - Joe Panik
I think this projection is counting on Belt taking a lot of walks and having a high On Base Percentage. Maybe with McCutchen hitting behind him, they expect he'll see more fastballs? I think Panik is a much more ideal #2 hitter so I don't really see this one happening, but it's an option I suppose. Anyway, at this point I think the Giants are done making moves unless they can add a veteran starter and a bullpen arm on the cheap. I don't usually write much about pitching so I'll stick to the lineups. Who else is ready for Opening Day?
Edit: I made a mistake that Jackson played mostly against left-handers. He actually had more plate appearances against right handed pitchers (177) than lefties (141). But his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage were all higher against lefties, hence why a platoon might be in the cards. See below:
vs. LHP vs. RHP
Plate Appearances 141 177
Batting Average .352 .291
On Base Percentage .440 .345
Slugging Percentage .574 .411
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