Well folks, the Giants won a game!!!! And not to pat myself on the back too much, but did you see how much energy was in the stadium and the dugout following Madison Bumgarner's home run? Yep, home runs = signature moments. Read my last blog. Seriously, go read it. I'll wait. No? That's cool, you're an adult, you can do what you like. What? No, I'm not crying. Why?
Sorry about that. Now back to business. So with Matt Cain being placed on the 15-day DL, I got to thinking who might the Giants be targeting in free agency in 2017. I know 2016 isn't quite over yet, but it's never too early to look ahead, right? Is it? Actually I had believed that Cain's contract was coming off the books after this season, but it looks like he's under contract through 2017 (with a $21 million club option or a $7.5 million buyout for 2018). Not that I don't appreciate the contributions he's made over the years but he is a below league average starter at this point and his $22.5 million salary is currently the highest cap hit on the team.
BREATHE!!!!!
So on the current roster, here are the contracts that will be coming off the books following the 2016 season:
LF - Angel Pagan
SP - Jake Peavy
RP - Santiago Casilla
RP - Sergio Romo
RP - Javier Lopez
OF - Gregor Blanco
That's the 3 remaining relief pitchers from the core 4 that were a part of all 3 recent championships, the starting Left Fielder and the #4 outfielder. I wouldn't expect the Giants to re-sign Peavy as the rotation is pretty well set up (provided you have confidence in Cain as the #5 starter). So it would seem the obvious targets would be the outfield and the bullpen. I'm also going to throw third base into the mix because I am not 100% sold on Eduardo Nunez as the starter, and Nunez is a free agent following the 2017 season. What about Christian Arroyo, you ask? Well Arroyo might be the future, but he has still not played above AA ball and is still only 21, and historically the Giants have been slow to promote young position players. Remember how long it took to promote Joe Panik in 2014? We first had to suffer through Brandon Hicks, and then a week of Dan Uggla (!!!!!) where he didn't record a single hit in 12 plate appearances. So yes, I'm going to include third base.
Let's start with the outfield as this is probably the one position where the Giants don't have an in-house replacement waiting in the wings. But what about Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker? Fair enough. Williamson is hitting .245 in 113 plate appearances with 27 strikeouts (24% strikeout rate). Parker is hitting .248 in 131 plate appearances with 38 strikeouts (29% strikeout rate). Unfortunately I don't see either of these guys as a long term option in left-field. At best you can probably platoon them, but that takes up a spot on your bench because you're basically using 2 roster spots to create one semi-effective Major League player and the Giants bench is already pretty thin as is.
Wow, this list does not inspire a lot of optimism. The first name that stands out is Ian Desmond. Desmond was a shortstop with the Washington Nationals but transitioned to the outfield this year with the Texas Rangers. He's played primarily in Center Field but has played 20 games in left. Desmond has had something of a career resurgence this season hitting .292 (his highest average since 2012 when he was an All-Star) with 20 Home Runs and 73 RBI in 120 Games. He's also stolen 18 bases. The problem with Desmond that I see is a high strikeout rate. He had a career high of 187 in 2015 and has 129 this season. He is making $8 million this year which is comparable to the $10 million that Angel Pagan is making, but Desmond will likely be seeking a multi-year deal and a pay increase.
Dexter Fowler could be a target after being a target last offseason before ultimately re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler would need to decline his option for 2017 to become a free agent. Fowler is hitting better in 2016 (.279 average vs .250 in 2015) but his power numbers are down (9 vs 17) and is stealing fewer bases (8 vs 20) this year. Fowler is making $8 million this year, so again, comparable salary to both Pagan and Desmond.
Jon Jay was whispered in trade rumors this season so we'll throw his name into the mix. Jay doesn't really have any numbers that jump off the page, but he was a part of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals World Series team so he has that championship pedigree. He's hitting .296 this year which is a huge improvement from .210 in 2015. Jay is making just under $7 million so he might be a bargain option. One thing to note, Jay hits left-handed and the Giants line-up already boasts 4 lefties so Jay may be a lower tier option particularly if the Giants are searching for more lineup balance.
Matt Joyce would be another bargain addition, currently making $1 million with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Joyce has some power (12 Home Runs in 2016), but is a career .244 hitter. And he's another left-handed batter.
Chris Coghlan might be worth a look as a former Rookie of the Year (2009), but has been disappointing in 2016 following 2 fairly solid seasons in Chicago, seeing his average slump to .165.
The last name I'm going to throw in, though I expect this is probably the least likely option, is Josh Reddick. Bay Area fans will be familiar with him from his days with the Oakland A's but Reddick is another left-handed batter and hasn't played left field since 2011. Reddick is a .253 career hitter, but hit .272 with Oakland in 2015, and has some power, hitting 20 Home Runs in 2015. His career high in home runs came in 2012 when he hit 32. Reddick is slumping since moving to the National League hitting only .158 in 14 games with the Dodgers. Reddick is making $6.575 million in 2016, but figures to have multiple suitors so expect that number to go up.
The Giants typically build their bullpen from within so I wouldn't expect them to dive too deep into free agency to address this position. They already have Will Smith under contract through 2019. Josh Osich has Major League experience and is under club control through 2021. With Steven Okert also on the 40-man roster, the Giants have 3 left-handed options to replace Lopez. As for a right-hander to replace Romo in a set-up role, Cory Gearrin has already been working in the 8th inning this season and Derek Law has proven very reliable in his rookie season. If the Giants do dive into the free agent pool for the bullpen, I would expect them to target a Closer, and there are some names out there.
Wade Davis is the first name that jumps off the page. Davis was mentioned in trade rumors this year, and will only be available if the Royals decline his option for 2017. But Davis has been dominant in the bullpen. He had a 2.43 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2012, but has been absolutely lights-out with Kansas City the past 3 seasons posting ERA's of 1.00, 0.94, and 1.60 respectively. He has 17 and 21 Saves the last 2 seasons after taking over the Closer role in 2015. Davis would be an expensive option, however, making $8 million this year, and his option for 2017 is for $10 million.
Kenley Jansen is another exciting, albeit expensive, option. Jansen has been the closer for the Dodgers for the past 5 seasons and is having one of his best statiscal seasons in 2016 posting a 1.80 ERA with 70 Strikeouts in 50 Innings Pitched (12.6 strikeouts per 9 innings). Jansen is making $10.65 million this year and would no doubt warrant a pay bump. But this signing would not only strengthen the back end of the Giants' bullpen immensely, it would also weaken a division opponent.
Mark Melancon was a trade target before being dealt from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. Melancon recorded a league best 51 Saves in 2015 and is boasting a 1.45 ERA in 2016. Melancon does not boast high strikeout totals recording 46 in 49.2 innings. Melancon is making $9.65 million this year, so again, an expensive option but definitely an improvement to the back end of the bullpen.
And now for my own self-indulgence, the Third Base options.....um....
So the first name is a guy the Giants were rumored to be interested in prior to the trade deadline, Yunel Escobar. Escobar would only be avaiable if the Angels decline his $7 million option for 2017. Escobar doesn't provide a lot of power, his season high for Home Runs is 14 in 2009, but he has been a .300+ hitter in each of the last 2 seasons (.314 in 2015, .320 in 2016).
David Freese is a veteran option who is currently hitting .283 with 11 Home Runs and 46 RBI with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Freese is playing under a reasonable $3 million contract.
Justin Turner was slumping early in the season but has found his stroke of late hitting .278 and setting a career high in Home Runs with 23 through only 113 Games. Turner is making $5.1 million this year and signing him would weaken a division rival, so good things.
Let's also point out that Ian Desmond played Shortstop with the Washington Nationals so he could potentially move back into the infield or offer some roster flexibility shifting between the infield and the outfield.
So there you go people, some potential Free Agent targets for the 2017 season. What do you think? Who would you like to see in a Giants uniform next year?
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