So the Giants lost again yesterday. They are currently an MLB worst 9-21 since the All-Star break, and have completely given up the lead in the NL West that they had held since May currently sitting in 2nd place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. There have been so many things that have gone wrong for this team in the last month from bad starting pitching, a bullpen that can't hold a lead, and an offense that seems completely lost. I could dedicate an entire blog entry to any one of those things. But some of the message boards today have centered around the lack of power in the lineup. I had suggested on an earlier post that the Giants should make a move for Ryan Braun from the Milwaukee Brewers, so I'm going to present my argument whether a power bat would fix the lineup.
Now first, let's take a look at what the lineup was supposed to look like at the beginning of the season with their 2015 statistics:
1. CF - Denard Span (.301 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 22 RBI, 11 Stolen Bases, 61 Games)
2. 2B - Joe Panik (.312, 8, 37)
3. 3B - Matt Duffy (.295, 12, 77)
4. C - Buster Posey (.318, 19, 85)
5. RF - Hunter Pence (.275, 9, 40, 52 Games)
6. SS - Brandon Crawford (.256, 21, 84)
7. 1B - Brandon Belt (.280, 18, 68)
8. LF - Angel Pagan (.262, 3, 37)
Looks pretty good, right? Well, let's run down the list and see where the problems lie. Right at the top, Span is hitting .263 in 2016 which is the lowest of his career and is more than 20 points lower than his career .285 average. His .329 On Base Percentage and .361 Slugging Percentage are also both the 3rd lowest in his career. Span is coming off an injury so I don't think we should have expected him to hit .300+ right away, but a .285 career average over 9 seasons gives us enough historical data to suggest that Span is performing below average expectations.
What happened to Joe Panik? In 2014 he was a sparkplug at the top of the lineup that helped the Giants to a World Series championship. In 2015 he was an All-Star. 2016? Panik is sporting a .243 Batting Average and has been dropped to the lower 3rd of the batting order. Panik has been slumping badly since returning to the lineup following a concussion suffered against the Tampa Bay Rays. He's also grounded into 1 fewer Double Play than he had in 2014 and 2015 COMBINED. Double Plays kill rallies, fact.
Duffy finished #2 in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. And then? Duffy slumped to a .253 average in 70 games before missing time due to an Achilles injury and was then traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Starting Pitcher Matt Moore.
Posey has been reasonably close to his career numbers with a .294 average, 12 Home Runs, and 57 RBI in 2016, but has been nursing a variety of injuries including a recent back injury. Posey says it only affects him running and you can definitely tell, but I believe it will also affect his swing.
Pence has been an iron man in his career playing in 150+ games for 7 straight seasons. The last 2 seasons, not so much. Pence just recently returned after missing 2 months with a hamstring injury and has looked completely lost at the plate. Recently he has looked better at covering the outer portion of the plate, but he is still swinging at absolutely everything.
Crawford has carried this team at times, including a 7-hit game at Miami on 8/8 that raised his average 13 points. He has 6 hits total in the 8 games since then. Crawford provides some power, but you can't rely on a .250 career hitter to be a consistent threat in the lineup. His defensive contributions are obviously a huge boost, but we're talking about offense here.
Belt signed a big contract extension this year and looked to be turning the corner as a possible elite player hitting .302 before the All-Star break and being named an All-Star for the first time in his career. The 2nd half has been a different story. Belt's average has dropped 22 points in the 2nd half and he has been striking out at an alarming rate including 2 4-strikeout games. In the first half Belt didn't have a single 4-strikeout game and had only 2 games where he struck out 3 times.
Pagan has seemingly been the only Giants player to improve on his 2015 numbers, hitting .297 with 8 Home Runs and 40 RBI through 88 Games. And to think, the biggest question mark in the lineup when the season started was whether Pagan could handle being moved from Center Field to Left and from leadoff to 8th. Seems silly now that we were worried about such things. Pagan has been hitting #2 in the lineup recently.
We will also mention Eduardo Nunez who the Giants acquired from the Minnesota Twins and who has effectively replaced Duffy at 3rd Base. Nunez hit .282 in 72 Games in 2015 with 4 Home Runs and 20 RBI. He was having a career season with Minnesota before being traded hitting .296 with 12 Home Runs and 47 RBI. Since the trade? Nunez has hit only .200 with the Giants.
For giggles, Ryan Braun is hitting .325 with 22 Home Runs and 65 RBI with Milwaukee. Now imagine that as the Giants' #3 hitter.
So it is safe to say that essentially the entire Giants lineup has been slumping. It's also safe to say that the lineup doesn't have a single consistent power threat. Now some may argue that you can win with pitching and defense and I would agree. AT&T Park is also not a ballpark where a lot of Home Runs are hit. Barry Bonds made it look small, sure, but a player like Barry Bonds comes along once in a lifetime. Still, I would argue that Home Runs are not only a hugely important part of a lineup, particularly the way the game is played today, and also that in the Giants' recent run of success, the Home Run has played a major role. A timely home run can not only set the tone for a game, but it can provide an emotional lift and swing momentum back to your team when it happens.
Consider, would the Giants have won the 2010 World Series without 2 home runs by Cody Ross in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies? What about the 3-run home run by Edgar Renteria in the top of the 7th inning of game 5 in the World Series, which ended up being the series clinching victory for the Giants?
How about 2012, Buster Posey hitting a grand slam in the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds in the series clinching game 5? Or Pablo Sandoval hitting 3 home runs (2 off starter Justin Verlander) in game 1 of the World Series against the Detroit Tigers?
What about 2014? Brandon Crawford hitting a grand slam in the NL Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Pirates? Brandon Belt hitting a go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 2 of the NLDS against the Washington Nationals? Michael Morse hitting a game-tying pinch-hit home run in the 8th inning of game 5 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals? Or Travis Ishikawa hitting a walk-off three-run home run in the same game to clinch the pennant for the Giants? Hunter Pence hitting a 2-run home run in game 1 of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals to set the tone for that game?
Sure there are other factors in those seasons. Dominant pitching comes to mind, including 4 straight seasons with a no-hitter and 5 since 2009, and Madison Bumgarner's performance in the 2014 World Series. But I would argue that the home runs are iconic moments in history. The Ishikawa home run in particular is one of those where you know exactly where you were and what you were doing when it happened. Can you honestly look at the lineup right now and say that anyone would inspire fear into the opposing pitcher? Or potentially provide us with another signature home run that will make us remember the 2016 season?
So in summary, I believe that a power bat is a very important piece that is missing from this lineup. What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? This is an open discussion topic and I welcome your opinion. Thanks for reading.
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