Hey everyone. So this is my 2nd blog in the last 24 hours. Yes, I know I just posted the previous one, but I wrote it yesterday and just didn't upload it. But it's interesting timing considering I was talking about what the Giants might do with their outfield in 2017 considering both Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco are scheduled to be free agents following the 2016 season. Well, on Friday, the Houston Astros released outfielder Carlos Gomez. And apparently the Giants might have some interest.
The quote goes "He's a name who's in play". According to Grant Brisbee of mccoveychronicles.com, Brian Sabean says Gomez is being discussed internally, but the Giants have to find out if Gomez would fit in their outfield and would be agreeable to a possible part-time job. So he's not currently being discussed to replace either Denard Span or Angel Pagan in the starting lineup. More likely Gomez would displace Gregor Blanco as the #4 outfielder and allow the Giants to rest Span or Pagan as we move towards October.
So who is Carlos Gomez? Gomez is a 2-time All Star who has spent time with the Mets, Twins, Brewers, and Astros. In his best 2 seasons in Milwaukee, 2013 and 2014, he hit .284 each year, with 24 Home Runs and 73 RBI in 2013, and 23 Home Runs and 73 RBI in 2014. He also stole 40 and 34 bases respectively. Gomez has had a down year hitting only .210 and .221 overall with Houston since they acquired him in 2015. Still, his most productive years were in the NL so it's possible his production was affected by moving to a new league. Overall Gomez is a .256 career hitter who has averaged 15 Home Runs and 32 Stolen Bases per year over a 10 year career.
Gomez is only under contract through 2016 so this signing would amount to essentially a 2-month tryout. Is he a better option than Blanco? At this point I'm going to say yes. Last night Blanco was announced as a pinch-hitter against the New York Mets, but after the Mets brought in Jerry Blevins to pitch, Blanco was called back and Ehire Adrianza pinch-hit instead. That means that Blanco did officially enter the game, but did not bat and did not play in the field. Is Gomez a better option than either Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker? Again I'm going to say yes. Despite flashes, both Williamson and Parker seem to be overmatched at the Major League level, and Gomez has a track record that suggests that he is better than his numbers in Houston. If the Giants do pull the trigger, I'm on board. What do you think? Would you like to see Carlos Gomez in a Giants uniform?
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Looking forward to 2017 - San Francisco Giants edition
Well folks, the Giants won a game!!!! And not to pat myself on the back too much, but did you see how much energy was in the stadium and the dugout following Madison Bumgarner's home run? Yep, home runs = signature moments. Read my last blog. Seriously, go read it. I'll wait. No? That's cool, you're an adult, you can do what you like. What? No, I'm not crying. Why?
Sorry about that. Now back to business. So with Matt Cain being placed on the 15-day DL, I got to thinking who might the Giants be targeting in free agency in 2017. I know 2016 isn't quite over yet, but it's never too early to look ahead, right? Is it? Actually I had believed that Cain's contract was coming off the books after this season, but it looks like he's under contract through 2017 (with a $21 million club option or a $7.5 million buyout for 2018). Not that I don't appreciate the contributions he's made over the years but he is a below league average starter at this point and his $22.5 million salary is currently the highest cap hit on the team.
BREATHE!!!!!
So on the current roster, here are the contracts that will be coming off the books following the 2016 season:
LF - Angel Pagan
SP - Jake Peavy
RP - Santiago Casilla
RP - Sergio Romo
RP - Javier Lopez
OF - Gregor Blanco
That's the 3 remaining relief pitchers from the core 4 that were a part of all 3 recent championships, the starting Left Fielder and the #4 outfielder. I wouldn't expect the Giants to re-sign Peavy as the rotation is pretty well set up (provided you have confidence in Cain as the #5 starter). So it would seem the obvious targets would be the outfield and the bullpen. I'm also going to throw third base into the mix because I am not 100% sold on Eduardo Nunez as the starter, and Nunez is a free agent following the 2017 season. What about Christian Arroyo, you ask? Well Arroyo might be the future, but he has still not played above AA ball and is still only 21, and historically the Giants have been slow to promote young position players. Remember how long it took to promote Joe Panik in 2014? We first had to suffer through Brandon Hicks, and then a week of Dan Uggla (!!!!!) where he didn't record a single hit in 12 plate appearances. So yes, I'm going to include third base.
Let's start with the outfield as this is probably the one position where the Giants don't have an in-house replacement waiting in the wings. But what about Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker? Fair enough. Williamson is hitting .245 in 113 plate appearances with 27 strikeouts (24% strikeout rate). Parker is hitting .248 in 131 plate appearances with 38 strikeouts (29% strikeout rate). Unfortunately I don't see either of these guys as a long term option in left-field. At best you can probably platoon them, but that takes up a spot on your bench because you're basically using 2 roster spots to create one semi-effective Major League player and the Giants bench is already pretty thin as is.
Wow, this list does not inspire a lot of optimism. The first name that stands out is Ian Desmond. Desmond was a shortstop with the Washington Nationals but transitioned to the outfield this year with the Texas Rangers. He's played primarily in Center Field but has played 20 games in left. Desmond has had something of a career resurgence this season hitting .292 (his highest average since 2012 when he was an All-Star) with 20 Home Runs and 73 RBI in 120 Games. He's also stolen 18 bases. The problem with Desmond that I see is a high strikeout rate. He had a career high of 187 in 2015 and has 129 this season. He is making $8 million this year which is comparable to the $10 million that Angel Pagan is making, but Desmond will likely be seeking a multi-year deal and a pay increase.
Dexter Fowler could be a target after being a target last offseason before ultimately re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler would need to decline his option for 2017 to become a free agent. Fowler is hitting better in 2016 (.279 average vs .250 in 2015) but his power numbers are down (9 vs 17) and is stealing fewer bases (8 vs 20) this year. Fowler is making $8 million this year, so again, comparable salary to both Pagan and Desmond.
Jon Jay was whispered in trade rumors this season so we'll throw his name into the mix. Jay doesn't really have any numbers that jump off the page, but he was a part of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals World Series team so he has that championship pedigree. He's hitting .296 this year which is a huge improvement from .210 in 2015. Jay is making just under $7 million so he might be a bargain option. One thing to note, Jay hits left-handed and the Giants line-up already boasts 4 lefties so Jay may be a lower tier option particularly if the Giants are searching for more lineup balance.
Matt Joyce would be another bargain addition, currently making $1 million with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Joyce has some power (12 Home Runs in 2016), but is a career .244 hitter. And he's another left-handed batter.
Chris Coghlan might be worth a look as a former Rookie of the Year (2009), but has been disappointing in 2016 following 2 fairly solid seasons in Chicago, seeing his average slump to .165.
The last name I'm going to throw in, though I expect this is probably the least likely option, is Josh Reddick. Bay Area fans will be familiar with him from his days with the Oakland A's but Reddick is another left-handed batter and hasn't played left field since 2011. Reddick is a .253 career hitter, but hit .272 with Oakland in 2015, and has some power, hitting 20 Home Runs in 2015. His career high in home runs came in 2012 when he hit 32. Reddick is slumping since moving to the National League hitting only .158 in 14 games with the Dodgers. Reddick is making $6.575 million in 2016, but figures to have multiple suitors so expect that number to go up.
The Giants typically build their bullpen from within so I wouldn't expect them to dive too deep into free agency to address this position. They already have Will Smith under contract through 2019. Josh Osich has Major League experience and is under club control through 2021. With Steven Okert also on the 40-man roster, the Giants have 3 left-handed options to replace Lopez. As for a right-hander to replace Romo in a set-up role, Cory Gearrin has already been working in the 8th inning this season and Derek Law has proven very reliable in his rookie season. If the Giants do dive into the free agent pool for the bullpen, I would expect them to target a Closer, and there are some names out there.
Wade Davis is the first name that jumps off the page. Davis was mentioned in trade rumors this year, and will only be available if the Royals decline his option for 2017. But Davis has been dominant in the bullpen. He had a 2.43 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2012, but has been absolutely lights-out with Kansas City the past 3 seasons posting ERA's of 1.00, 0.94, and 1.60 respectively. He has 17 and 21 Saves the last 2 seasons after taking over the Closer role in 2015. Davis would be an expensive option, however, making $8 million this year, and his option for 2017 is for $10 million.
Kenley Jansen is another exciting, albeit expensive, option. Jansen has been the closer for the Dodgers for the past 5 seasons and is having one of his best statiscal seasons in 2016 posting a 1.80 ERA with 70 Strikeouts in 50 Innings Pitched (12.6 strikeouts per 9 innings). Jansen is making $10.65 million this year and would no doubt warrant a pay bump. But this signing would not only strengthen the back end of the Giants' bullpen immensely, it would also weaken a division opponent.
Mark Melancon was a trade target before being dealt from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. Melancon recorded a league best 51 Saves in 2015 and is boasting a 1.45 ERA in 2016. Melancon does not boast high strikeout totals recording 46 in 49.2 innings. Melancon is making $9.65 million this year, so again, an expensive option but definitely an improvement to the back end of the bullpen.
And now for my own self-indulgence, the Third Base options.....um....
So the first name is a guy the Giants were rumored to be interested in prior to the trade deadline, Yunel Escobar. Escobar would only be avaiable if the Angels decline his $7 million option for 2017. Escobar doesn't provide a lot of power, his season high for Home Runs is 14 in 2009, but he has been a .300+ hitter in each of the last 2 seasons (.314 in 2015, .320 in 2016).
David Freese is a veteran option who is currently hitting .283 with 11 Home Runs and 46 RBI with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Freese is playing under a reasonable $3 million contract.
Justin Turner was slumping early in the season but has found his stroke of late hitting .278 and setting a career high in Home Runs with 23 through only 113 Games. Turner is making $5.1 million this year and signing him would weaken a division rival, so good things.
Let's also point out that Ian Desmond played Shortstop with the Washington Nationals so he could potentially move back into the infield or offer some roster flexibility shifting between the infield and the outfield.
So there you go people, some potential Free Agent targets for the 2017 season. What do you think? Who would you like to see in a Giants uniform next year?
Sorry about that. Now back to business. So with Matt Cain being placed on the 15-day DL, I got to thinking who might the Giants be targeting in free agency in 2017. I know 2016 isn't quite over yet, but it's never too early to look ahead, right? Is it? Actually I had believed that Cain's contract was coming off the books after this season, but it looks like he's under contract through 2017 (with a $21 million club option or a $7.5 million buyout for 2018). Not that I don't appreciate the contributions he's made over the years but he is a below league average starter at this point and his $22.5 million salary is currently the highest cap hit on the team.
BREATHE!!!!!
So on the current roster, here are the contracts that will be coming off the books following the 2016 season:
LF - Angel Pagan
SP - Jake Peavy
RP - Santiago Casilla
RP - Sergio Romo
RP - Javier Lopez
OF - Gregor Blanco
That's the 3 remaining relief pitchers from the core 4 that were a part of all 3 recent championships, the starting Left Fielder and the #4 outfielder. I wouldn't expect the Giants to re-sign Peavy as the rotation is pretty well set up (provided you have confidence in Cain as the #5 starter). So it would seem the obvious targets would be the outfield and the bullpen. I'm also going to throw third base into the mix because I am not 100% sold on Eduardo Nunez as the starter, and Nunez is a free agent following the 2017 season. What about Christian Arroyo, you ask? Well Arroyo might be the future, but he has still not played above AA ball and is still only 21, and historically the Giants have been slow to promote young position players. Remember how long it took to promote Joe Panik in 2014? We first had to suffer through Brandon Hicks, and then a week of Dan Uggla (!!!!!) where he didn't record a single hit in 12 plate appearances. So yes, I'm going to include third base.
Let's start with the outfield as this is probably the one position where the Giants don't have an in-house replacement waiting in the wings. But what about Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker? Fair enough. Williamson is hitting .245 in 113 plate appearances with 27 strikeouts (24% strikeout rate). Parker is hitting .248 in 131 plate appearances with 38 strikeouts (29% strikeout rate). Unfortunately I don't see either of these guys as a long term option in left-field. At best you can probably platoon them, but that takes up a spot on your bench because you're basically using 2 roster spots to create one semi-effective Major League player and the Giants bench is already pretty thin as is.
Wow, this list does not inspire a lot of optimism. The first name that stands out is Ian Desmond. Desmond was a shortstop with the Washington Nationals but transitioned to the outfield this year with the Texas Rangers. He's played primarily in Center Field but has played 20 games in left. Desmond has had something of a career resurgence this season hitting .292 (his highest average since 2012 when he was an All-Star) with 20 Home Runs and 73 RBI in 120 Games. He's also stolen 18 bases. The problem with Desmond that I see is a high strikeout rate. He had a career high of 187 in 2015 and has 129 this season. He is making $8 million this year which is comparable to the $10 million that Angel Pagan is making, but Desmond will likely be seeking a multi-year deal and a pay increase.
Dexter Fowler could be a target after being a target last offseason before ultimately re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler would need to decline his option for 2017 to become a free agent. Fowler is hitting better in 2016 (.279 average vs .250 in 2015) but his power numbers are down (9 vs 17) and is stealing fewer bases (8 vs 20) this year. Fowler is making $8 million this year, so again, comparable salary to both Pagan and Desmond.
Jon Jay was whispered in trade rumors this season so we'll throw his name into the mix. Jay doesn't really have any numbers that jump off the page, but he was a part of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals World Series team so he has that championship pedigree. He's hitting .296 this year which is a huge improvement from .210 in 2015. Jay is making just under $7 million so he might be a bargain option. One thing to note, Jay hits left-handed and the Giants line-up already boasts 4 lefties so Jay may be a lower tier option particularly if the Giants are searching for more lineup balance.
Matt Joyce would be another bargain addition, currently making $1 million with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Joyce has some power (12 Home Runs in 2016), but is a career .244 hitter. And he's another left-handed batter.
Chris Coghlan might be worth a look as a former Rookie of the Year (2009), but has been disappointing in 2016 following 2 fairly solid seasons in Chicago, seeing his average slump to .165.
The last name I'm going to throw in, though I expect this is probably the least likely option, is Josh Reddick. Bay Area fans will be familiar with him from his days with the Oakland A's but Reddick is another left-handed batter and hasn't played left field since 2011. Reddick is a .253 career hitter, but hit .272 with Oakland in 2015, and has some power, hitting 20 Home Runs in 2015. His career high in home runs came in 2012 when he hit 32. Reddick is slumping since moving to the National League hitting only .158 in 14 games with the Dodgers. Reddick is making $6.575 million in 2016, but figures to have multiple suitors so expect that number to go up.
The Giants typically build their bullpen from within so I wouldn't expect them to dive too deep into free agency to address this position. They already have Will Smith under contract through 2019. Josh Osich has Major League experience and is under club control through 2021. With Steven Okert also on the 40-man roster, the Giants have 3 left-handed options to replace Lopez. As for a right-hander to replace Romo in a set-up role, Cory Gearrin has already been working in the 8th inning this season and Derek Law has proven very reliable in his rookie season. If the Giants do dive into the free agent pool for the bullpen, I would expect them to target a Closer, and there are some names out there.
Wade Davis is the first name that jumps off the page. Davis was mentioned in trade rumors this year, and will only be available if the Royals decline his option for 2017. But Davis has been dominant in the bullpen. He had a 2.43 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2012, but has been absolutely lights-out with Kansas City the past 3 seasons posting ERA's of 1.00, 0.94, and 1.60 respectively. He has 17 and 21 Saves the last 2 seasons after taking over the Closer role in 2015. Davis would be an expensive option, however, making $8 million this year, and his option for 2017 is for $10 million.
Kenley Jansen is another exciting, albeit expensive, option. Jansen has been the closer for the Dodgers for the past 5 seasons and is having one of his best statiscal seasons in 2016 posting a 1.80 ERA with 70 Strikeouts in 50 Innings Pitched (12.6 strikeouts per 9 innings). Jansen is making $10.65 million this year and would no doubt warrant a pay bump. But this signing would not only strengthen the back end of the Giants' bullpen immensely, it would also weaken a division opponent.
Mark Melancon was a trade target before being dealt from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. Melancon recorded a league best 51 Saves in 2015 and is boasting a 1.45 ERA in 2016. Melancon does not boast high strikeout totals recording 46 in 49.2 innings. Melancon is making $9.65 million this year, so again, an expensive option but definitely an improvement to the back end of the bullpen.
And now for my own self-indulgence, the Third Base options.....um....
So the first name is a guy the Giants were rumored to be interested in prior to the trade deadline, Yunel Escobar. Escobar would only be avaiable if the Angels decline his $7 million option for 2017. Escobar doesn't provide a lot of power, his season high for Home Runs is 14 in 2009, but he has been a .300+ hitter in each of the last 2 seasons (.314 in 2015, .320 in 2016).
David Freese is a veteran option who is currently hitting .283 with 11 Home Runs and 46 RBI with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Freese is playing under a reasonable $3 million contract.
Justin Turner was slumping early in the season but has found his stroke of late hitting .278 and setting a career high in Home Runs with 23 through only 113 Games. Turner is making $5.1 million this year and signing him would weaken a division rival, so good things.
Let's also point out that Ian Desmond played Shortstop with the Washington Nationals so he could potentially move back into the infield or offer some roster flexibility shifting between the infield and the outfield.
So there you go people, some potential Free Agent targets for the 2017 season. What do you think? Who would you like to see in a Giants uniform next year?
Thursday, August 18, 2016
The Giants probably need a power hitter
So the Giants lost again yesterday. They are currently an MLB worst 9-21 since the All-Star break, and have completely given up the lead in the NL West that they had held since May currently sitting in 2nd place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. There have been so many things that have gone wrong for this team in the last month from bad starting pitching, a bullpen that can't hold a lead, and an offense that seems completely lost. I could dedicate an entire blog entry to any one of those things. But some of the message boards today have centered around the lack of power in the lineup. I had suggested on an earlier post that the Giants should make a move for Ryan Braun from the Milwaukee Brewers, so I'm going to present my argument whether a power bat would fix the lineup.
Now first, let's take a look at what the lineup was supposed to look like at the beginning of the season with their 2015 statistics:
1. CF - Denard Span (.301 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 22 RBI, 11 Stolen Bases, 61 Games)
2. 2B - Joe Panik (.312, 8, 37)
3. 3B - Matt Duffy (.295, 12, 77)
4. C - Buster Posey (.318, 19, 85)
5. RF - Hunter Pence (.275, 9, 40, 52 Games)
6. SS - Brandon Crawford (.256, 21, 84)
7. 1B - Brandon Belt (.280, 18, 68)
8. LF - Angel Pagan (.262, 3, 37)
Looks pretty good, right? Well, let's run down the list and see where the problems lie. Right at the top, Span is hitting .263 in 2016 which is the lowest of his career and is more than 20 points lower than his career .285 average. His .329 On Base Percentage and .361 Slugging Percentage are also both the 3rd lowest in his career. Span is coming off an injury so I don't think we should have expected him to hit .300+ right away, but a .285 career average over 9 seasons gives us enough historical data to suggest that Span is performing below average expectations.
What happened to Joe Panik? In 2014 he was a sparkplug at the top of the lineup that helped the Giants to a World Series championship. In 2015 he was an All-Star. 2016? Panik is sporting a .243 Batting Average and has been dropped to the lower 3rd of the batting order. Panik has been slumping badly since returning to the lineup following a concussion suffered against the Tampa Bay Rays. He's also grounded into 1 fewer Double Play than he had in 2014 and 2015 COMBINED. Double Plays kill rallies, fact.
Duffy finished #2 in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. And then? Duffy slumped to a .253 average in 70 games before missing time due to an Achilles injury and was then traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Starting Pitcher Matt Moore.
Posey has been reasonably close to his career numbers with a .294 average, 12 Home Runs, and 57 RBI in 2016, but has been nursing a variety of injuries including a recent back injury. Posey says it only affects him running and you can definitely tell, but I believe it will also affect his swing.
Pence has been an iron man in his career playing in 150+ games for 7 straight seasons. The last 2 seasons, not so much. Pence just recently returned after missing 2 months with a hamstring injury and has looked completely lost at the plate. Recently he has looked better at covering the outer portion of the plate, but he is still swinging at absolutely everything.
Crawford has carried this team at times, including a 7-hit game at Miami on 8/8 that raised his average 13 points. He has 6 hits total in the 8 games since then. Crawford provides some power, but you can't rely on a .250 career hitter to be a consistent threat in the lineup. His defensive contributions are obviously a huge boost, but we're talking about offense here.
Belt signed a big contract extension this year and looked to be turning the corner as a possible elite player hitting .302 before the All-Star break and being named an All-Star for the first time in his career. The 2nd half has been a different story. Belt's average has dropped 22 points in the 2nd half and he has been striking out at an alarming rate including 2 4-strikeout games. In the first half Belt didn't have a single 4-strikeout game and had only 2 games where he struck out 3 times.
Pagan has seemingly been the only Giants player to improve on his 2015 numbers, hitting .297 with 8 Home Runs and 40 RBI through 88 Games. And to think, the biggest question mark in the lineup when the season started was whether Pagan could handle being moved from Center Field to Left and from leadoff to 8th. Seems silly now that we were worried about such things. Pagan has been hitting #2 in the lineup recently.
We will also mention Eduardo Nunez who the Giants acquired from the Minnesota Twins and who has effectively replaced Duffy at 3rd Base. Nunez hit .282 in 72 Games in 2015 with 4 Home Runs and 20 RBI. He was having a career season with Minnesota before being traded hitting .296 with 12 Home Runs and 47 RBI. Since the trade? Nunez has hit only .200 with the Giants.
For giggles, Ryan Braun is hitting .325 with 22 Home Runs and 65 RBI with Milwaukee. Now imagine that as the Giants' #3 hitter.
So it is safe to say that essentially the entire Giants lineup has been slumping. It's also safe to say that the lineup doesn't have a single consistent power threat. Now some may argue that you can win with pitching and defense and I would agree. AT&T Park is also not a ballpark where a lot of Home Runs are hit. Barry Bonds made it look small, sure, but a player like Barry Bonds comes along once in a lifetime. Still, I would argue that Home Runs are not only a hugely important part of a lineup, particularly the way the game is played today, and also that in the Giants' recent run of success, the Home Run has played a major role. A timely home run can not only set the tone for a game, but it can provide an emotional lift and swing momentum back to your team when it happens.
Consider, would the Giants have won the 2010 World Series without 2 home runs by Cody Ross in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies? What about the 3-run home run by Edgar Renteria in the top of the 7th inning of game 5 in the World Series, which ended up being the series clinching victory for the Giants?
How about 2012, Buster Posey hitting a grand slam in the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds in the series clinching game 5? Or Pablo Sandoval hitting 3 home runs (2 off starter Justin Verlander) in game 1 of the World Series against the Detroit Tigers?
What about 2014? Brandon Crawford hitting a grand slam in the NL Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Pirates? Brandon Belt hitting a go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 2 of the NLDS against the Washington Nationals? Michael Morse hitting a game-tying pinch-hit home run in the 8th inning of game 5 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals? Or Travis Ishikawa hitting a walk-off three-run home run in the same game to clinch the pennant for the Giants? Hunter Pence hitting a 2-run home run in game 1 of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals to set the tone for that game?
Sure there are other factors in those seasons. Dominant pitching comes to mind, including 4 straight seasons with a no-hitter and 5 since 2009, and Madison Bumgarner's performance in the 2014 World Series. But I would argue that the home runs are iconic moments in history. The Ishikawa home run in particular is one of those where you know exactly where you were and what you were doing when it happened. Can you honestly look at the lineup right now and say that anyone would inspire fear into the opposing pitcher? Or potentially provide us with another signature home run that will make us remember the 2016 season?
So in summary, I believe that a power bat is a very important piece that is missing from this lineup. What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? This is an open discussion topic and I welcome your opinion. Thanks for reading.
Now first, let's take a look at what the lineup was supposed to look like at the beginning of the season with their 2015 statistics:
1. CF - Denard Span (.301 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 22 RBI, 11 Stolen Bases, 61 Games)
2. 2B - Joe Panik (.312, 8, 37)
3. 3B - Matt Duffy (.295, 12, 77)
4. C - Buster Posey (.318, 19, 85)
5. RF - Hunter Pence (.275, 9, 40, 52 Games)
6. SS - Brandon Crawford (.256, 21, 84)
7. 1B - Brandon Belt (.280, 18, 68)
8. LF - Angel Pagan (.262, 3, 37)
Looks pretty good, right? Well, let's run down the list and see where the problems lie. Right at the top, Span is hitting .263 in 2016 which is the lowest of his career and is more than 20 points lower than his career .285 average. His .329 On Base Percentage and .361 Slugging Percentage are also both the 3rd lowest in his career. Span is coming off an injury so I don't think we should have expected him to hit .300+ right away, but a .285 career average over 9 seasons gives us enough historical data to suggest that Span is performing below average expectations.
What happened to Joe Panik? In 2014 he was a sparkplug at the top of the lineup that helped the Giants to a World Series championship. In 2015 he was an All-Star. 2016? Panik is sporting a .243 Batting Average and has been dropped to the lower 3rd of the batting order. Panik has been slumping badly since returning to the lineup following a concussion suffered against the Tampa Bay Rays. He's also grounded into 1 fewer Double Play than he had in 2014 and 2015 COMBINED. Double Plays kill rallies, fact.
Duffy finished #2 in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. And then? Duffy slumped to a .253 average in 70 games before missing time due to an Achilles injury and was then traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Starting Pitcher Matt Moore.
Posey has been reasonably close to his career numbers with a .294 average, 12 Home Runs, and 57 RBI in 2016, but has been nursing a variety of injuries including a recent back injury. Posey says it only affects him running and you can definitely tell, but I believe it will also affect his swing.
Pence has been an iron man in his career playing in 150+ games for 7 straight seasons. The last 2 seasons, not so much. Pence just recently returned after missing 2 months with a hamstring injury and has looked completely lost at the plate. Recently he has looked better at covering the outer portion of the plate, but he is still swinging at absolutely everything.
Crawford has carried this team at times, including a 7-hit game at Miami on 8/8 that raised his average 13 points. He has 6 hits total in the 8 games since then. Crawford provides some power, but you can't rely on a .250 career hitter to be a consistent threat in the lineup. His defensive contributions are obviously a huge boost, but we're talking about offense here.
Belt signed a big contract extension this year and looked to be turning the corner as a possible elite player hitting .302 before the All-Star break and being named an All-Star for the first time in his career. The 2nd half has been a different story. Belt's average has dropped 22 points in the 2nd half and he has been striking out at an alarming rate including 2 4-strikeout games. In the first half Belt didn't have a single 4-strikeout game and had only 2 games where he struck out 3 times.
Pagan has seemingly been the only Giants player to improve on his 2015 numbers, hitting .297 with 8 Home Runs and 40 RBI through 88 Games. And to think, the biggest question mark in the lineup when the season started was whether Pagan could handle being moved from Center Field to Left and from leadoff to 8th. Seems silly now that we were worried about such things. Pagan has been hitting #2 in the lineup recently.
We will also mention Eduardo Nunez who the Giants acquired from the Minnesota Twins and who has effectively replaced Duffy at 3rd Base. Nunez hit .282 in 72 Games in 2015 with 4 Home Runs and 20 RBI. He was having a career season with Minnesota before being traded hitting .296 with 12 Home Runs and 47 RBI. Since the trade? Nunez has hit only .200 with the Giants.
For giggles, Ryan Braun is hitting .325 with 22 Home Runs and 65 RBI with Milwaukee. Now imagine that as the Giants' #3 hitter.
So it is safe to say that essentially the entire Giants lineup has been slumping. It's also safe to say that the lineup doesn't have a single consistent power threat. Now some may argue that you can win with pitching and defense and I would agree. AT&T Park is also not a ballpark where a lot of Home Runs are hit. Barry Bonds made it look small, sure, but a player like Barry Bonds comes along once in a lifetime. Still, I would argue that Home Runs are not only a hugely important part of a lineup, particularly the way the game is played today, and also that in the Giants' recent run of success, the Home Run has played a major role. A timely home run can not only set the tone for a game, but it can provide an emotional lift and swing momentum back to your team when it happens.
Consider, would the Giants have won the 2010 World Series without 2 home runs by Cody Ross in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies? What about the 3-run home run by Edgar Renteria in the top of the 7th inning of game 5 in the World Series, which ended up being the series clinching victory for the Giants?
How about 2012, Buster Posey hitting a grand slam in the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds in the series clinching game 5? Or Pablo Sandoval hitting 3 home runs (2 off starter Justin Verlander) in game 1 of the World Series against the Detroit Tigers?
What about 2014? Brandon Crawford hitting a grand slam in the NL Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Pirates? Brandon Belt hitting a go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 2 of the NLDS against the Washington Nationals? Michael Morse hitting a game-tying pinch-hit home run in the 8th inning of game 5 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals? Or Travis Ishikawa hitting a walk-off three-run home run in the same game to clinch the pennant for the Giants? Hunter Pence hitting a 2-run home run in game 1 of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals to set the tone for that game?
Sure there are other factors in those seasons. Dominant pitching comes to mind, including 4 straight seasons with a no-hitter and 5 since 2009, and Madison Bumgarner's performance in the 2014 World Series. But I would argue that the home runs are iconic moments in history. The Ishikawa home run in particular is one of those where you know exactly where you were and what you were doing when it happened. Can you honestly look at the lineup right now and say that anyone would inspire fear into the opposing pitcher? Or potentially provide us with another signature home run that will make us remember the 2016 season?
So in summary, I believe that a power bat is a very important piece that is missing from this lineup. What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? This is an open discussion topic and I welcome your opinion. Thanks for reading.
Monday, August 1, 2016
San Francisco Giants - Trade Deadline Edition
Hi everyone. So I started writing this a few hours before the trade deadline, and updated it as news became available up to and following the trade deadline at 4 PM Eastern time. So here's my recap.
11:56 AM EST
Well folks, here's another baseball post, which is to say this is primarily a Giants post. We are fast approaching the Major League Baseball non-waivers trade deadline (4 PM Eastern time) and anxiously.....ANXIOUSLY.....awaiting what the Giants will do. This team has been atrocious coming out of the All-Star break going 4-11 and entering August with only a 2 game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers. The primary need pretty much the entire year has been the bullpen (Giants had 18 blown saves as of July 16, most in the Majors), but the Giants have also been looking for an impact bat and a starting pitcher. The need for a bat has been increased with Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy missing time with injuries and the struggles of the Giants hitting with runners in scoring position, especially during this recent stretch. So on Thursday, 7/28, the Giants added.....an infielder? The Giants acquired Eduardo Nunez from the Twins for minor league pitcher Adalberto Mejia who was the Giants' #3 overall prospect. Sure, Nunez was an All-Star (because the Twins had to have an All-Star), and he was hitting a career best .296 with 12 Home Runs, 47 RBI, and 27 Stolen Bases at the time of the trade, but his doesn't really strike me as an impact bat, and he for sure doesn't pitch, so.....
So what have we heard? Well, as of this writing, the Giants are reportedly making a push for Jay Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds. Giants fans might remember him since he just hit 4 home runs in 3 games at AT&T Park just a week ago. So while this might be a case of short memory, I don't particularly like the fit. Here's why.
Jay Bruce has been a Right Fielder pretty much his entire Major League career. Right Field is where Hunter Pence plays. So acquiring Bruce would push one of them to Left Field, with Bruce being the more likely candidate. Bruce played 11 games in Left Field in 2008 (his first Major League year) and 0 since then. Bruce also played 3 games at First Base in 2014, so I suppose you could slot Bruce at First and move Brandon Belt to Left Field, but that would mean one of those bats would be sitting on the bench when Buster Posey gets a start at First Base. Of course, Posey has only played 10 games at First Base this year, which are his fewest games at the position since 2011 when he played in only 43 games. The other issue I have is Bruce hits left-handed and the Giants are already very heavily left-handed. Their regular lineup boasts 4 lefties (Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford) and 1 switch-hitter (Angel Pagan). So adding Bruce doesn't work to balance the lineup. Looking at his current numbers (.265 batting average, 25 Home Runs, 80 RBI), this would seem like a Pat Burrell type addition, which has worked out for the Giants in previous years. Still, I'm not sold. Besides, MLB Trade Rumors is listing the Mets as the favorites to land Bruce, so there's that.
Let's look at the bullpen. At the top of the list is a couple of guys from the Milwaukee Brewers. Will Smith (wait, the guy in Suicide Squad? No, not THAT Will Smith.) and Jeremy Jeffress. I believe the Giants would prefer Smith as he's left-handed and the Giants have been trying to replace Jeremy Affeldt and Josh Osich has not been doing the job (also currently on the DL). Coupled with the struggles of Javier Lopez and the Giants don't have a reliable lefty in the pen. Smith's ERA is up (3.68) and his strikeouts are down (22 in 22 innings) from where they were in 2015, but he still averages more than a strikeout per inning for his career. The Giants might be able to buy low based on his 2016 numbers. Jeffress has been the Brewers' closer this year and has 27 saves, but is not really a strikeout arm with only 35 in 44.2 innings. The Giants also already have their closer in Santiago Casilla, though I'm not sure how comfortable that makes anyone right now. The Giants have apparently also checked in with the Angels about Huston Street. Street is familiar to the Giants from his days with the Rockies and Padres, and while Street is not the closer he was in previous years, he is still only one year removed from a 40 save season in 2015.
So now let's look at the Starters. The Giants are reportedly "not sold" on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain at the back end of the rotation, so if they do make a move it will be for someone who will slot in as the #4 of #5 starter. At the top of the list is Jeremy Hellickson from the Philadelphia Phillies. Hellickson is a former Rookie of the Year (2011) and is currently 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA with the Phillies. The market for Hellickson may be too rich, however, which could knock the Giants out of the mix. Another name to keep an eye on is Hellickson's former teammate with the Tampa Bay Rays, Matt Moore. Moore was an All-Star in 2013 and owns a 7-7 record with a 4.08 ERA. Moore has given up 20 Home Runs this year so that's a concern, but fly-ball pitchers have had success pitching at AT&T park in the past (see Matt Cain). Other names the Giants may be considering are Erasmo Ramirez (Tampa Bay Rays) and Edinson Volquez (Kansas City Royals). Ramirez has pitched primarily out of the bullpen this year, but was a starter in 2015 and had an 11-6 record with a 3.75 ERA. This year he is 7-8 with a 3.96 ERA. Volquez has been down this year, currently with an 8-9 record and a 4.70 ERA. Still, he was an above .500 pitcher in each of the past 2 seasons (13-7 in 2014 with Pittsburgh, 13-9 in 2015 with Kansas City) an dhis ERA has been under 4 in each of those seasons. I'm not sold this would be an upgrade, and Volquez can become a free agent after 2016 ($10 million mutual option or $3 million buyout for 2017), so this would essentially be giving up prospects for a 2-3 month rental.
So what do I think will happen? Well, the Giants don't have an "elite" minor league system, but they do have 2 prospects in the top 100 in Phil Bickford (65) and Christian Arroyo (94). They could also deal Major League talent in either Joe Panik or Matt Duffy (I know, I know, let me finish) which could be offset by the addition of Eduardo Nunez. While not an ideal scenario in my opinion, adding Nunez does offer the Giants some flexibility to deal from the Major League roster. The price for pitching has been pretty steep, so I don't know if the Giants can put together a package for Hellickson or Moore that will be attractive enough for Philadelphia or Tampa Bay to bite. Same goes for Bruce, plus I don't think he's an ideal fit for the Giants anyway. I think the most realistic of all these options would be Smith (again, not THAT Will Smith) or Jeffress, but Milwaukee seems to want to package either Jonathan Lucroy or Ryan Braun with a reliever and the Giants have no interest in either of those players.
So, what does it all mean, you ask. And I answer, it would not shock me that the trade deadline comes and goes with the Giants having exactly the same roster as they did before the deadline. While the Giants do seem to need to make a deal to stay ahead of the teams chasing them, the market seems to be overvaluing pitching and the Giants would have to give up multiple prospects which they have not been historically overeager to do. The Giants will also not make a move simply for the sake of making a move. I'm sure they're doing their homework and will have a plan going into the last 2 months of the season, but I do not honestly see a deal being made.
And as I write this, the Dodgers just acquired Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from the A's and the Reds are on the verge of finializing a trade for Jay Bruce. Great. Well thank you Oakland for screwing over your neighbors yet again!!!!!
3:28 PM EST
The Giants have acquired Will Smith from the Milwaukee Brewers for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac. So let's take a look at that deal.
Smith is a left-handed relief pitcher, which was definitely a need for the Giants. Smith throws a 4-seam and 2-seam/cut fastball about 55% of the time. He also throws a Slider (33%) and a Curve (12%). He also has a Changeup, though per his scouting report it doesn't look like he's throwing it this year. Average velocity on the fastball is 91.6 MPH (90.5 on the 2-seam), which is down from his career averages, though that might have something to do with a knee injury Smith suffered during Spring Training. Get this, Smith suffered the injury while pulling off his cleats. While not quite to the standard of Jeremy Affeldt (Affeldt injury history below), you have to wonder, what is it with the Giants and left-handed relief pitchers who injure themselves in odd, sometimes hilarious ways?
1. Cut throwing hand with knife while separating frozen hamburger patties in 2011. Required surgery to repair nerve damage.
2. Injured knee while playing with his son in 2012.
3. Strains oblique from sneezing in 2013.
4. Injured knee from slipping on platform while jumping into Loon Lake celebrating son's birthday in 2015.
So what did the Giants give up to get Smith? Well, first let's restate what we already said earlier, that the market price for pitching was steep. So first we'll start with Bickford who was the Giants #1 overall prospect and #65 on the Top 100 prospects list. Seems a pretty high price right there for a dude who's probably going to be pitching in the 7th inning. Bickford was the Giants 1st round draft pick in 2015. Bickford has a 4-seam fastball that can hit 98, and a low-90s 2-seam fastball with sink. He has a plus slider if his mechanics are good, and has been developing a changeup during instructional league. Bickford was envisioned as a starter, but some scouts prefer him in the bullpen. He can have trouble maintaining his arm slot, but has electric stuff in short stints, which could project him as a potential closer.
Susac has spent some time in the Majors (35 games in 2014, 52 in 2015), but was blocked at Catcher by Buster Posey and had fallen behind Trevor Brown on the depth chart. The Giants also have a catcher as their #7 overall prospect in Aramis Garcia. So it makes sense to trade Susac while he holds some value. Susac was batting .273 with 8 home runs and 36 RBI at AAA Sacramento and provides Milwaukee with some insurance as they attempt to trade Jonathan Lucroy.
One of the most attractive aspects of the trade is that Will Smith will not merely be a 2-3 month rental for the Giants. He will be eligible for salary arbitration in 2017, but will not become a free agent until 2020 at the earliest. So while this move may be to improve the bullpen this year, the Giants have a potential contributor in their bullpen for the next 3 seasons. I'm OK with this move.
5:03 PM EST
The trade deadline came and went about an hour ago, but news of deals was still being reported, and here's where we find a potential blockbuster deal. The Giants acquire Matt Moore from the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox, and Michael Santos. Matt Moore is a guy who had a ton of potential when he came into the league. Then he underwent Tommy John surgery in January, 2013 and hasn't really been the same pitcher since. But you're paying for the potential that he'll re-find his form given new surroundings and the mastery/sorcery that is pitching coach Dave Righetti. And Moore is under contract for another 3 seasons, so like Smith, he's not just a 2-3 month rental. This guy could potentially be your #4 starter through the 2019 season. I'm excited about this one, even though the Giants did give up quite a bit to get it done.
Oh, Matt Duffy. How far we have fallen since you finished #2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting just last season. Duffy was batting .253 with 4 home runs and 21 RBI in 70 games and has been out since June 19 with an Achilles injury. Coincidentally the injury occurred during a game against Tampa Bay. Yes he was under team control through 2020. But suddenly, doesn't that Eduardo Nunez trade suddenly make a ton more sense? I do have to wonder though, where Duffy will play in Tampa Bay. He's by far played his most games (205) at Third Base, but the Rays have this other dude playing Third named.....oh, I know this....Evan Longoria. I don't see Duffy replacing him straight up. Duffy does have a handful of games at Second (18) and Shortstop (10), but is blocked at both positions by Brad Miller and Logan Forsythe respectively.
Fox was the Giants #4 overall prospect and Santos was their #24 overall prospect. Still, neither had played above A ball yet, so I can live with trading 2 guys who are probably 3+ years away from the Major League club, if they make it all, for a guy who can help you now, AND can potentially help you for the next 3 years while he's under contract.
So that's it. I think the Giants improved, even if they had to sacrifice some future talent to do it. They didn't get a bat, but this doesn't mean they won't. The Giants have historically acquired talent after the deadline who have contributed greatly to their success in both the regular season and postseason. Cody Ross was acquired on August 21, 2010, and would go on to be named the 2010 NLCS MVP and help the Giants win their first World Series title in San Francisco and first overall since 1954. Marlon Byrd was acquired on August 20, 2015 and hit a home run in his first at-bat in a Giants uniform. So don't sleep on more moves to come. Until next time, see you at the ballpark.
11:56 AM EST
Well folks, here's another baseball post, which is to say this is primarily a Giants post. We are fast approaching the Major League Baseball non-waivers trade deadline (4 PM Eastern time) and anxiously.....ANXIOUSLY.....awaiting what the Giants will do. This team has been atrocious coming out of the All-Star break going 4-11 and entering August with only a 2 game lead on the Los Angeles Dodgers. The primary need pretty much the entire year has been the bullpen (Giants had 18 blown saves as of July 16, most in the Majors), but the Giants have also been looking for an impact bat and a starting pitcher. The need for a bat has been increased with Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy missing time with injuries and the struggles of the Giants hitting with runners in scoring position, especially during this recent stretch. So on Thursday, 7/28, the Giants added.....an infielder? The Giants acquired Eduardo Nunez from the Twins for minor league pitcher Adalberto Mejia who was the Giants' #3 overall prospect. Sure, Nunez was an All-Star (because the Twins had to have an All-Star), and he was hitting a career best .296 with 12 Home Runs, 47 RBI, and 27 Stolen Bases at the time of the trade, but his doesn't really strike me as an impact bat, and he for sure doesn't pitch, so.....
So what have we heard? Well, as of this writing, the Giants are reportedly making a push for Jay Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds. Giants fans might remember him since he just hit 4 home runs in 3 games at AT&T Park just a week ago. So while this might be a case of short memory, I don't particularly like the fit. Here's why.
Jay Bruce has been a Right Fielder pretty much his entire Major League career. Right Field is where Hunter Pence plays. So acquiring Bruce would push one of them to Left Field, with Bruce being the more likely candidate. Bruce played 11 games in Left Field in 2008 (his first Major League year) and 0 since then. Bruce also played 3 games at First Base in 2014, so I suppose you could slot Bruce at First and move Brandon Belt to Left Field, but that would mean one of those bats would be sitting on the bench when Buster Posey gets a start at First Base. Of course, Posey has only played 10 games at First Base this year, which are his fewest games at the position since 2011 when he played in only 43 games. The other issue I have is Bruce hits left-handed and the Giants are already very heavily left-handed. Their regular lineup boasts 4 lefties (Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford) and 1 switch-hitter (Angel Pagan). So adding Bruce doesn't work to balance the lineup. Looking at his current numbers (.265 batting average, 25 Home Runs, 80 RBI), this would seem like a Pat Burrell type addition, which has worked out for the Giants in previous years. Still, I'm not sold. Besides, MLB Trade Rumors is listing the Mets as the favorites to land Bruce, so there's that.
Let's look at the bullpen. At the top of the list is a couple of guys from the Milwaukee Brewers. Will Smith (wait, the guy in Suicide Squad? No, not THAT Will Smith.) and Jeremy Jeffress. I believe the Giants would prefer Smith as he's left-handed and the Giants have been trying to replace Jeremy Affeldt and Josh Osich has not been doing the job (also currently on the DL). Coupled with the struggles of Javier Lopez and the Giants don't have a reliable lefty in the pen. Smith's ERA is up (3.68) and his strikeouts are down (22 in 22 innings) from where they were in 2015, but he still averages more than a strikeout per inning for his career. The Giants might be able to buy low based on his 2016 numbers. Jeffress has been the Brewers' closer this year and has 27 saves, but is not really a strikeout arm with only 35 in 44.2 innings. The Giants also already have their closer in Santiago Casilla, though I'm not sure how comfortable that makes anyone right now. The Giants have apparently also checked in with the Angels about Huston Street. Street is familiar to the Giants from his days with the Rockies and Padres, and while Street is not the closer he was in previous years, he is still only one year removed from a 40 save season in 2015.
So now let's look at the Starters. The Giants are reportedly "not sold" on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain at the back end of the rotation, so if they do make a move it will be for someone who will slot in as the #4 of #5 starter. At the top of the list is Jeremy Hellickson from the Philadelphia Phillies. Hellickson is a former Rookie of the Year (2011) and is currently 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA with the Phillies. The market for Hellickson may be too rich, however, which could knock the Giants out of the mix. Another name to keep an eye on is Hellickson's former teammate with the Tampa Bay Rays, Matt Moore. Moore was an All-Star in 2013 and owns a 7-7 record with a 4.08 ERA. Moore has given up 20 Home Runs this year so that's a concern, but fly-ball pitchers have had success pitching at AT&T park in the past (see Matt Cain). Other names the Giants may be considering are Erasmo Ramirez (Tampa Bay Rays) and Edinson Volquez (Kansas City Royals). Ramirez has pitched primarily out of the bullpen this year, but was a starter in 2015 and had an 11-6 record with a 3.75 ERA. This year he is 7-8 with a 3.96 ERA. Volquez has been down this year, currently with an 8-9 record and a 4.70 ERA. Still, he was an above .500 pitcher in each of the past 2 seasons (13-7 in 2014 with Pittsburgh, 13-9 in 2015 with Kansas City) an dhis ERA has been under 4 in each of those seasons. I'm not sold this would be an upgrade, and Volquez can become a free agent after 2016 ($10 million mutual option or $3 million buyout for 2017), so this would essentially be giving up prospects for a 2-3 month rental.
So what do I think will happen? Well, the Giants don't have an "elite" minor league system, but they do have 2 prospects in the top 100 in Phil Bickford (65) and Christian Arroyo (94). They could also deal Major League talent in either Joe Panik or Matt Duffy (I know, I know, let me finish) which could be offset by the addition of Eduardo Nunez. While not an ideal scenario in my opinion, adding Nunez does offer the Giants some flexibility to deal from the Major League roster. The price for pitching has been pretty steep, so I don't know if the Giants can put together a package for Hellickson or Moore that will be attractive enough for Philadelphia or Tampa Bay to bite. Same goes for Bruce, plus I don't think he's an ideal fit for the Giants anyway. I think the most realistic of all these options would be Smith (again, not THAT Will Smith) or Jeffress, but Milwaukee seems to want to package either Jonathan Lucroy or Ryan Braun with a reliever and the Giants have no interest in either of those players.
So, what does it all mean, you ask. And I answer, it would not shock me that the trade deadline comes and goes with the Giants having exactly the same roster as they did before the deadline. While the Giants do seem to need to make a deal to stay ahead of the teams chasing them, the market seems to be overvaluing pitching and the Giants would have to give up multiple prospects which they have not been historically overeager to do. The Giants will also not make a move simply for the sake of making a move. I'm sure they're doing their homework and will have a plan going into the last 2 months of the season, but I do not honestly see a deal being made.
And as I write this, the Dodgers just acquired Rich Hill and Josh Reddick from the A's and the Reds are on the verge of finializing a trade for Jay Bruce. Great. Well thank you Oakland for screwing over your neighbors yet again!!!!!
3:28 PM EST
The Giants have acquired Will Smith from the Milwaukee Brewers for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac. So let's take a look at that deal.
Smith is a left-handed relief pitcher, which was definitely a need for the Giants. Smith throws a 4-seam and 2-seam/cut fastball about 55% of the time. He also throws a Slider (33%) and a Curve (12%). He also has a Changeup, though per his scouting report it doesn't look like he's throwing it this year. Average velocity on the fastball is 91.6 MPH (90.5 on the 2-seam), which is down from his career averages, though that might have something to do with a knee injury Smith suffered during Spring Training. Get this, Smith suffered the injury while pulling off his cleats. While not quite to the standard of Jeremy Affeldt (Affeldt injury history below), you have to wonder, what is it with the Giants and left-handed relief pitchers who injure themselves in odd, sometimes hilarious ways?
1. Cut throwing hand with knife while separating frozen hamburger patties in 2011. Required surgery to repair nerve damage.
2. Injured knee while playing with his son in 2012.
3. Strains oblique from sneezing in 2013.
4. Injured knee from slipping on platform while jumping into Loon Lake celebrating son's birthday in 2015.
So what did the Giants give up to get Smith? Well, first let's restate what we already said earlier, that the market price for pitching was steep. So first we'll start with Bickford who was the Giants #1 overall prospect and #65 on the Top 100 prospects list. Seems a pretty high price right there for a dude who's probably going to be pitching in the 7th inning. Bickford was the Giants 1st round draft pick in 2015. Bickford has a 4-seam fastball that can hit 98, and a low-90s 2-seam fastball with sink. He has a plus slider if his mechanics are good, and has been developing a changeup during instructional league. Bickford was envisioned as a starter, but some scouts prefer him in the bullpen. He can have trouble maintaining his arm slot, but has electric stuff in short stints, which could project him as a potential closer.
Susac has spent some time in the Majors (35 games in 2014, 52 in 2015), but was blocked at Catcher by Buster Posey and had fallen behind Trevor Brown on the depth chart. The Giants also have a catcher as their #7 overall prospect in Aramis Garcia. So it makes sense to trade Susac while he holds some value. Susac was batting .273 with 8 home runs and 36 RBI at AAA Sacramento and provides Milwaukee with some insurance as they attempt to trade Jonathan Lucroy.
One of the most attractive aspects of the trade is that Will Smith will not merely be a 2-3 month rental for the Giants. He will be eligible for salary arbitration in 2017, but will not become a free agent until 2020 at the earliest. So while this move may be to improve the bullpen this year, the Giants have a potential contributor in their bullpen for the next 3 seasons. I'm OK with this move.
5:03 PM EST
The trade deadline came and went about an hour ago, but news of deals was still being reported, and here's where we find a potential blockbuster deal. The Giants acquire Matt Moore from the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Duffy, Lucius Fox, and Michael Santos. Matt Moore is a guy who had a ton of potential when he came into the league. Then he underwent Tommy John surgery in January, 2013 and hasn't really been the same pitcher since. But you're paying for the potential that he'll re-find his form given new surroundings and the mastery/sorcery that is pitching coach Dave Righetti. And Moore is under contract for another 3 seasons, so like Smith, he's not just a 2-3 month rental. This guy could potentially be your #4 starter through the 2019 season. I'm excited about this one, even though the Giants did give up quite a bit to get it done.
Oh, Matt Duffy. How far we have fallen since you finished #2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting just last season. Duffy was batting .253 with 4 home runs and 21 RBI in 70 games and has been out since June 19 with an Achilles injury. Coincidentally the injury occurred during a game against Tampa Bay. Yes he was under team control through 2020. But suddenly, doesn't that Eduardo Nunez trade suddenly make a ton more sense? I do have to wonder though, where Duffy will play in Tampa Bay. He's by far played his most games (205) at Third Base, but the Rays have this other dude playing Third named.....oh, I know this....Evan Longoria. I don't see Duffy replacing him straight up. Duffy does have a handful of games at Second (18) and Shortstop (10), but is blocked at both positions by Brad Miller and Logan Forsythe respectively.
Fox was the Giants #4 overall prospect and Santos was their #24 overall prospect. Still, neither had played above A ball yet, so I can live with trading 2 guys who are probably 3+ years away from the Major League club, if they make it all, for a guy who can help you now, AND can potentially help you for the next 3 years while he's under contract.
So that's it. I think the Giants improved, even if they had to sacrifice some future talent to do it. They didn't get a bat, but this doesn't mean they won't. The Giants have historically acquired talent after the deadline who have contributed greatly to their success in both the regular season and postseason. Cody Ross was acquired on August 21, 2010, and would go on to be named the 2010 NLCS MVP and help the Giants win their first World Series title in San Francisco and first overall since 1954. Marlon Byrd was acquired on August 20, 2015 and hit a home run in his first at-bat in a Giants uniform. So don't sleep on more moves to come. Until next time, see you at the ballpark.
Monday, June 13, 2016
Giants trade rumor - Ryan Braun edition
What's up to all my fellow baseball, and specifically my fellow Giants, fans. So as of today there is a rumor floating around that the Giants have had preliminary talks with the Brewers regarding a trade for Ryan Braun. You might remember if you read my last blog that I voted for Braun on my All-Star ballot. So if Braun were to end up with the Giants, I would be absolutely giddy. But let's look at a potential deal, what it might take to get it done, and what it might mean.
First let's look at some bad surrounding Braun. He is 32, and typically players do not get better as they advance through their 30's. He is owed $76 million over the last 4 years of his contract, through 2020. His performance has seemingly declined over the past 2 seasons. Braun is a .305 career hitter, but his Batting Average slipped to a career low .266 in 2014 and .285 in 2015. His power numbers were also down in those years hitting 19 Home Runs in 2014 and 25 in 2015. There's also that pesky PED suspension he served in 2013.
So those are the bad, let's look at the good. His performance is up in 2016, which could inflate his trade value a bit, but he's hitting .316 and is on pace to 34 Home Runs (11 through 52 games). He is under contract through at least 2020 (mutual option for 2021) and with Angel Pagan scheduled to be a free agent after 2016, Braun would give them a ready-made replacement in Left Field for then next 4 years. Braun lengthens an already deep Giants lineup. Depending on where you bat him (3-6) that will place Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy as your #7 and #8 batters in some order.
What would it take to obtain Braun? Right now the 2 prospects who have been linked to Milwaukee are Tyler Beede and Christian Arroyo. It hasn't been stated that these are the only 2 prospects included in a deal, and I would guess the Giants would need to send 1 or 2 more players to the Brewers in return for Braun. So let's take a look at these 2 players.
Tyler Beede was the Giants' 1st round draft selection in 2014 and is currently their #2 ranked prospect per MLB.com. Beede has not pitched above AA yet in his young career and currently has a 4-3 record with a 3.05 ERA at AA Richmond. Per his scouting report, Beede has 3 plus (above average) pitches. Beede has a 4-seam fastball that he can throw 92-97 mph, and a 2-seam fastball that he can throw 90-95 with some sink generating plenty of ground balls. He also has a changeup and a power curve. Beede had a history of inconsistent control and command while at Vanderbilt. Beede has the potential to be a frontline starter at the Major League level.
Christian Arroyo was the Giants' 1st round selection in 2013 and has also not played above AA. Arroyo is the Giants #1 ranked prospect. Currently at Richmond he is batting .286 with 2 Home Runs and 18 RBI in 57 games. Arroyo is an advanced hitter for his age (21) who makes consistent, solid contact. If Arroyo can be more selective, he projects as a 15 Home Run per year hitter. Defensively, Arroyo has sure hands and a solid arm at Shortstop. He has fringe speed and range, which could lead to a position change to 3rd Base or a corner outfield position.
So why might the Giants be willing to part with these 2 propsects? Arroyo is a pretty easy answer, I think. Arroyo's main position is Shortstop where he is blocked by Brandon Crawford, who is under contract through 2021. What about sliding him over to 2nd Base? Joe Panik is under club control (contract + arbitration) through 2021. 3rd Base? Matt Duffy is also under club control through 2021. If Arroyo does shift to a corner outfield spot, if the Giants do acquire Braun, he is under contract through 2020. Center Fielder Denard Span is under contract through 2019, and Right Fielder Hunter Pence is under contract through 2018. So if he stays with the Giants, Arroyo is truly a man without a position or a clear path to the Majors until 2019 at the earliest.
What about Beede? Well, again Beede is currently the Giants #2 prospect, but 19 of their top 30 are pitchers so the Giants would be dealing from a position of depth there. Notable names in the top 10 include Phil Bickford and Kyle Crick, and #14 prospect Chris Stratton is currently on the Major League roster (though he may be sent back down to AAA Sacramento once Matt Cain is activated from the DL).
All in all, I would really like this trade for the Giants. Even if the price seems a bit steep, Angel Pagan has had issues staying healthy every year in a Giants uniform beginning in 2013. Hunter Pence has been an iron man throughout his career, but not the past 2 seasons, and is not expected back from his hamstring injury until early August. Neither Jarrett Parker or Mac Williamson looks like a Major League ready option at this point. Since Barry Bonds final season in 2007, the Giants have started 39 players in Left Field (as of 6/6/2016, that number may have gone up in the last week, I'm not 100% sure). So Braun, assuming he stays healthy, would definitely give the Giants some stability at a position that has been a black hole for the better part of a decade.
So what do you think? Would you like to see Ryan Braun in a Giants uniform? Let's discuss!!!
First let's look at some bad surrounding Braun. He is 32, and typically players do not get better as they advance through their 30's. He is owed $76 million over the last 4 years of his contract, through 2020. His performance has seemingly declined over the past 2 seasons. Braun is a .305 career hitter, but his Batting Average slipped to a career low .266 in 2014 and .285 in 2015. His power numbers were also down in those years hitting 19 Home Runs in 2014 and 25 in 2015. There's also that pesky PED suspension he served in 2013.
So those are the bad, let's look at the good. His performance is up in 2016, which could inflate his trade value a bit, but he's hitting .316 and is on pace to 34 Home Runs (11 through 52 games). He is under contract through at least 2020 (mutual option for 2021) and with Angel Pagan scheduled to be a free agent after 2016, Braun would give them a ready-made replacement in Left Field for then next 4 years. Braun lengthens an already deep Giants lineup. Depending on where you bat him (3-6) that will place Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy as your #7 and #8 batters in some order.
What would it take to obtain Braun? Right now the 2 prospects who have been linked to Milwaukee are Tyler Beede and Christian Arroyo. It hasn't been stated that these are the only 2 prospects included in a deal, and I would guess the Giants would need to send 1 or 2 more players to the Brewers in return for Braun. So let's take a look at these 2 players.
Tyler Beede was the Giants' 1st round draft selection in 2014 and is currently their #2 ranked prospect per MLB.com. Beede has not pitched above AA yet in his young career and currently has a 4-3 record with a 3.05 ERA at AA Richmond. Per his scouting report, Beede has 3 plus (above average) pitches. Beede has a 4-seam fastball that he can throw 92-97 mph, and a 2-seam fastball that he can throw 90-95 with some sink generating plenty of ground balls. He also has a changeup and a power curve. Beede had a history of inconsistent control and command while at Vanderbilt. Beede has the potential to be a frontline starter at the Major League level.
Christian Arroyo was the Giants' 1st round selection in 2013 and has also not played above AA. Arroyo is the Giants #1 ranked prospect. Currently at Richmond he is batting .286 with 2 Home Runs and 18 RBI in 57 games. Arroyo is an advanced hitter for his age (21) who makes consistent, solid contact. If Arroyo can be more selective, he projects as a 15 Home Run per year hitter. Defensively, Arroyo has sure hands and a solid arm at Shortstop. He has fringe speed and range, which could lead to a position change to 3rd Base or a corner outfield position.
So why might the Giants be willing to part with these 2 propsects? Arroyo is a pretty easy answer, I think. Arroyo's main position is Shortstop where he is blocked by Brandon Crawford, who is under contract through 2021. What about sliding him over to 2nd Base? Joe Panik is under club control (contract + arbitration) through 2021. 3rd Base? Matt Duffy is also under club control through 2021. If Arroyo does shift to a corner outfield spot, if the Giants do acquire Braun, he is under contract through 2020. Center Fielder Denard Span is under contract through 2019, and Right Fielder Hunter Pence is under contract through 2018. So if he stays with the Giants, Arroyo is truly a man without a position or a clear path to the Majors until 2019 at the earliest.
What about Beede? Well, again Beede is currently the Giants #2 prospect, but 19 of their top 30 are pitchers so the Giants would be dealing from a position of depth there. Notable names in the top 10 include Phil Bickford and Kyle Crick, and #14 prospect Chris Stratton is currently on the Major League roster (though he may be sent back down to AAA Sacramento once Matt Cain is activated from the DL).
All in all, I would really like this trade for the Giants. Even if the price seems a bit steep, Angel Pagan has had issues staying healthy every year in a Giants uniform beginning in 2013. Hunter Pence has been an iron man throughout his career, but not the past 2 seasons, and is not expected back from his hamstring injury until early August. Neither Jarrett Parker or Mac Williamson looks like a Major League ready option at this point. Since Barry Bonds final season in 2007, the Giants have started 39 players in Left Field (as of 6/6/2016, that number may have gone up in the last week, I'm not 100% sure). So Braun, assuming he stays healthy, would definitely give the Giants some stability at a position that has been a black hole for the better part of a decade.
So what do you think? Would you like to see Ryan Braun in a Giants uniform? Let's discuss!!!
All-Star Game Ballot
What's up baseball fans? So the All-Star Game is a month away, July 12, and we're talking ballots. Now as a Giants fan, I would love to see as many of my favorite players in the game as possible (and zero Dodgers). As a baseball fan, however, I want to see the best, most deserving players in the game. Unlike the Kansas City Royals fans, who were almost successful in voting in 8 starters. For those of you counting, that's the ENTIRE TEAM, not counting the DH (and as a National League fan, I do not), and the pitcher which fans don't vote on anyway. As it turned out, the Royals had 4 starters in the game, and probably 3 of them truly deserved to be there. If you really believe that Alcides Escobar was the best Shortstop in the American League in 2015, I would like to ask you where one can obtain the drug that would make one so delusional. But back to the point. I wanted to share my (first) ballot with you and explain why I voted the way I did, while also opening the discussion as to why you might vote a different way. With the game being played in San Diego, let's begin with the visiting American League team.
First Base - Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (.321, 10 Home Runs, 35 RBI, 4 Stolen Bases): I could have gone a couple of ways here. Miguel Cabrera (.304, 12, 36, 0) is having a pretty decent season, but Hosmer is the pick for me. If you're looking for power, but little else, you could also consider Chris Davis from the Baltimore Orioles (.214, 12, 30, 0) or Mike Napoli from the Cleveland Indians (.234, 14, 42, 2).
Second Base - Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (.336, 10, 36, 18): This one was a little tough. There are a lot of good Second Basemen in the AL. Robinson Cano from the Seattle Mariners (.292, 16, 48, 0), Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays (.308, 4, 12, 3), Ian Kinsler from the Detroit Tigers (.315, 11, 35, 7), and Dustin Pedroia from the Boston Red Sox (.314, 7, 26, 4) are all having All-Star worthy seasons. I'm going with Altuve for the unparalleled combination of average, power, and speed. Altuve should not only be starting, he should also be leading off for the AL team.
Shortstop - Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (.340, 6, 36, 8): Carlos Correa from the Houston Astros (.254, 8, 32, 8) and Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians (.304, 6, 29, 10) may be the best young Shortstops in the AL for the future, but Bogaerts is having the best 2016. He also carried a 26 game hit streak through 6/3. Marcus Semien of the Oakland A's (.227, 11, 25, 3) leads all AL Shortstops in Home Runs.
Third Base - Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (.303, 15, 37, 0): I have a feeling that Machado will have this selection on lock for a long time. A few other guys you could consider, Nick Castellanos from the Detroit Tigers (.316, 11, 35, 1), Evan Longoria from the Tampa Bay Rays (.279, 14, 35, 0), Kyle Seager from the Seattle Mariners (.279, 10, 40, 0), and Danny Valencia from the Oakland A's (.343, 9, 22, 0). Todd Frazier from the Chicago White Sox (.217, 19, 42, 5) could see some votes due to his power numbers, and the fact that he won the Home Run Derby in 2015 as a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
Catcher - Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (.272, 7, 25, 0): The AL is pretty barren for Catchers. Really there were only 3 guys who would warrant consideration for an All-Star selection, and none of the 3 is having a trule All-Star worthy season. Stephen Vogt from the Oakland A's (.270, 4, 15, 0) and Matt Wieters from the Baltimore Orioles (.280, 5, 25, 1) are the other 2.
Designated Hitter (AL only) - David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (.338, 16, 55, 1): Ortiz would probably get voted in because he has announced that he will retire after the 2016 season. But unlike some (Derek Jeter, 2014), Ortiz deserves to get the nod in his retirement year. Nelson Cruz from the Seattle Mariners (.288, 15, 43, 0) and Victor Martinez from the Detroit Tigers (.341, 9, 34, 0) should also get some consideration.
Outfield (3) - Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees (.281, 16, 41, 0) - Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (.291, 14, 45, 11) - Mark Trumbo (.294, 20, 48, 1): Outfield is always difficult because you're trying to single out 3 guys from a pool of 45, and probably more than half of them deserve to be considered. You might notice that I didn't vote for Mike Trout from the Los Angeles Angels (.309, 13, 43, 8). Trout is having a good season, but not the MVP caliber season that we've seen from him in the past. This probably means that we as fans have been spoiled.
That's the American League. Now the National League team.
First Base - Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (.298, 7, 29, 0): I originally didn't want to pick Belt because I don't want to come off like a Giants homer. But the truth is, out of the NL First Basemen, Belt should be right up there when picking the NL All-Stars based on his 2016 numbers. He's tied for the lead in Batting Average and while his power numbers are in the middle of the pack, you have to wonder how many more Home Runs he would hit if he were playing in say Arizona or Chicago. I would have been perfectly fine voting for Will Myers from the San Diego Padres (.294, 12, 33, 7) as well. Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.270, 11, 37, 7) and Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs (.259, 13, 43, 2) will probably end up leading the voting. Whether they truly deserve to be there remains in question.
Second Base - Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals (.376, 10, 38, 2): This one shouldn't be close. Murphy currently leads all NL Second Basemen in Batting Average and RBI, and is 2nd in Home Runs behing Neil Walker while hitting 97 points higher. Josh Harrison from the Pittsburgh Pirates (.322, 2, 28, 11), D.J. LeMahieu from the Colorado Rockies (.303, 3, 18, 6), Jean Segura from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.290, 5, 27, 6), Neil Walker from the New York Mets (.279, 13, 25, 1), and Ben Zobrist from the Chicago Cubs (.325, 8, 36, 2) are all having fine seasons too.
Shortstop - Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Bresers (.306, 5, 25, 22): This was a tough call. You have no idea how badly I wanted to vote for Brandon Crawford from the San Francisco Giants (.260, 6, 32, 3). Really this was a 2-man race for me between Villar and Zack Cozart from the Cincinnati Reds (.303, 9, 25, 1). Both had very similar stat lines and I almost swayed to Cozart as he missed most of the 2015 season following a knee injury. But there is no room for feel-good stories here!!!! Villar gets the nod. Corey Seager from the Los Angeles Dodgers (.283, 14, 35, 1) and Trevor Story from the Colorado Rockies (.258, 16, 42, 3) should see some votes, but not from me. I have a strict no Dodgers policy, and an almost as strict no Rockies policy. You'll see why the no Rockies policy is not as strict as the no Dodgers policy in just a second.
Third Base - Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (.289, 18, 49, 1): See? I told you that no Rockies policy was not as strict. Pretty sure Arenado should be getting MVP consideration, and would definitely win it if he played every game against the Giants. He absolutely kills San Francisco. I'd better stop talking about it or I might change my pick....to....Kris Bryant from the Chicago Cubs (.284, 14, 43, 2)???? Yeah, I'll stick with Arenado. Choosing between those 2 is like choosing between Trump and Hillary for most of the rest of the country. Which is the least bad. Not that it's Bryant's fault. I think Bryant gets vilified some because he was anointed the next superstar before ever playing a game in the Majors. He's having a good season too. I feel dirty, I don't want to talk about this pick anymore.....
Catcher - Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals (.345, 8, 33, 0): No, we're supposed to vote for Buster Posey (.257, 8, 26, 2). The truth is Posey is not having a good year and probably doesn't deserve to be there. So we have to pick the best from the rest. Ramos is my pick. Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers (.310, 9, 28, 2), Wellington Castillo from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.271, 7, 22, 2), and J.P. Realmuto from the Miami Marlins (.297, 2, 15, 3) are having good seasons also.
Outfield (3) - Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (.328, 9, 33,5) - Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins (.314, 11, 31, 0) - Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates (.308, 9, 39, 8): Again, difficult to pick just 3 guys out of 45. Note, no Bryce Harper. Again, not having a season on par with his 2015 MVP season.
So that's it folks. There's my ballot. What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? Who would you vote in? Do you vote for your hometown players whether they're the best players at their positions or not? Get out there and vote. You can vote using a single email address up to 35 times (5 times per 24 hour period). Thanks for reading.
First Base - Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (.321, 10 Home Runs, 35 RBI, 4 Stolen Bases): I could have gone a couple of ways here. Miguel Cabrera (.304, 12, 36, 0) is having a pretty decent season, but Hosmer is the pick for me. If you're looking for power, but little else, you could also consider Chris Davis from the Baltimore Orioles (.214, 12, 30, 0) or Mike Napoli from the Cleveland Indians (.234, 14, 42, 2).
Second Base - Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (.336, 10, 36, 18): This one was a little tough. There are a lot of good Second Basemen in the AL. Robinson Cano from the Seattle Mariners (.292, 16, 48, 0), Logan Forsythe from the Tampa Bay Rays (.308, 4, 12, 3), Ian Kinsler from the Detroit Tigers (.315, 11, 35, 7), and Dustin Pedroia from the Boston Red Sox (.314, 7, 26, 4) are all having All-Star worthy seasons. I'm going with Altuve for the unparalleled combination of average, power, and speed. Altuve should not only be starting, he should also be leading off for the AL team.
Shortstop - Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (.340, 6, 36, 8): Carlos Correa from the Houston Astros (.254, 8, 32, 8) and Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians (.304, 6, 29, 10) may be the best young Shortstops in the AL for the future, but Bogaerts is having the best 2016. He also carried a 26 game hit streak through 6/3. Marcus Semien of the Oakland A's (.227, 11, 25, 3) leads all AL Shortstops in Home Runs.
Third Base - Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (.303, 15, 37, 0): I have a feeling that Machado will have this selection on lock for a long time. A few other guys you could consider, Nick Castellanos from the Detroit Tigers (.316, 11, 35, 1), Evan Longoria from the Tampa Bay Rays (.279, 14, 35, 0), Kyle Seager from the Seattle Mariners (.279, 10, 40, 0), and Danny Valencia from the Oakland A's (.343, 9, 22, 0). Todd Frazier from the Chicago White Sox (.217, 19, 42, 5) could see some votes due to his power numbers, and the fact that he won the Home Run Derby in 2015 as a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
Catcher - Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (.272, 7, 25, 0): The AL is pretty barren for Catchers. Really there were only 3 guys who would warrant consideration for an All-Star selection, and none of the 3 is having a trule All-Star worthy season. Stephen Vogt from the Oakland A's (.270, 4, 15, 0) and Matt Wieters from the Baltimore Orioles (.280, 5, 25, 1) are the other 2.
Designated Hitter (AL only) - David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (.338, 16, 55, 1): Ortiz would probably get voted in because he has announced that he will retire after the 2016 season. But unlike some (Derek Jeter, 2014), Ortiz deserves to get the nod in his retirement year. Nelson Cruz from the Seattle Mariners (.288, 15, 43, 0) and Victor Martinez from the Detroit Tigers (.341, 9, 34, 0) should also get some consideration.
Outfield (3) - Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees (.281, 16, 41, 0) - Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (.291, 14, 45, 11) - Mark Trumbo (.294, 20, 48, 1): Outfield is always difficult because you're trying to single out 3 guys from a pool of 45, and probably more than half of them deserve to be considered. You might notice that I didn't vote for Mike Trout from the Los Angeles Angels (.309, 13, 43, 8). Trout is having a good season, but not the MVP caliber season that we've seen from him in the past. This probably means that we as fans have been spoiled.
That's the American League. Now the National League team.
First Base - Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (.298, 7, 29, 0): I originally didn't want to pick Belt because I don't want to come off like a Giants homer. But the truth is, out of the NL First Basemen, Belt should be right up there when picking the NL All-Stars based on his 2016 numbers. He's tied for the lead in Batting Average and while his power numbers are in the middle of the pack, you have to wonder how many more Home Runs he would hit if he were playing in say Arizona or Chicago. I would have been perfectly fine voting for Will Myers from the San Diego Padres (.294, 12, 33, 7) as well. Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.270, 11, 37, 7) and Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs (.259, 13, 43, 2) will probably end up leading the voting. Whether they truly deserve to be there remains in question.
Second Base - Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals (.376, 10, 38, 2): This one shouldn't be close. Murphy currently leads all NL Second Basemen in Batting Average and RBI, and is 2nd in Home Runs behing Neil Walker while hitting 97 points higher. Josh Harrison from the Pittsburgh Pirates (.322, 2, 28, 11), D.J. LeMahieu from the Colorado Rockies (.303, 3, 18, 6), Jean Segura from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.290, 5, 27, 6), Neil Walker from the New York Mets (.279, 13, 25, 1), and Ben Zobrist from the Chicago Cubs (.325, 8, 36, 2) are all having fine seasons too.
Shortstop - Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Bresers (.306, 5, 25, 22): This was a tough call. You have no idea how badly I wanted to vote for Brandon Crawford from the San Francisco Giants (.260, 6, 32, 3). Really this was a 2-man race for me between Villar and Zack Cozart from the Cincinnati Reds (.303, 9, 25, 1). Both had very similar stat lines and I almost swayed to Cozart as he missed most of the 2015 season following a knee injury. But there is no room for feel-good stories here!!!! Villar gets the nod. Corey Seager from the Los Angeles Dodgers (.283, 14, 35, 1) and Trevor Story from the Colorado Rockies (.258, 16, 42, 3) should see some votes, but not from me. I have a strict no Dodgers policy, and an almost as strict no Rockies policy. You'll see why the no Rockies policy is not as strict as the no Dodgers policy in just a second.
Third Base - Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (.289, 18, 49, 1): See? I told you that no Rockies policy was not as strict. Pretty sure Arenado should be getting MVP consideration, and would definitely win it if he played every game against the Giants. He absolutely kills San Francisco. I'd better stop talking about it or I might change my pick....to....Kris Bryant from the Chicago Cubs (.284, 14, 43, 2)???? Yeah, I'll stick with Arenado. Choosing between those 2 is like choosing between Trump and Hillary for most of the rest of the country. Which is the least bad. Not that it's Bryant's fault. I think Bryant gets vilified some because he was anointed the next superstar before ever playing a game in the Majors. He's having a good season too. I feel dirty, I don't want to talk about this pick anymore.....
Catcher - Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals (.345, 8, 33, 0): No, we're supposed to vote for Buster Posey (.257, 8, 26, 2). The truth is Posey is not having a good year and probably doesn't deserve to be there. So we have to pick the best from the rest. Ramos is my pick. Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers (.310, 9, 28, 2), Wellington Castillo from the Arizona Diamondbacks (.271, 7, 22, 2), and J.P. Realmuto from the Miami Marlins (.297, 2, 15, 3) are having good seasons also.
Outfield (3) - Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (.328, 9, 33,5) - Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins (.314, 11, 31, 0) - Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates (.308, 9, 39, 8): Again, difficult to pick just 3 guys out of 45. Note, no Bryce Harper. Again, not having a season on par with his 2015 MVP season.
So that's it folks. There's my ballot. What do you think? Do you agree? Disagree? Who would you vote in? Do you vote for your hometown players whether they're the best players at their positions or not? Get out there and vote. You can vote using a single email address up to 35 times (5 times per 24 hour period). Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Johnny Cueto vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Well folks, I'm not one to say "I told you so". I do act like I know what I'm talking about from time to time, and sometimes I get proven right. I'd like to talk about something I was asking for way back on October 1, and that was for the San Francisco Giants to pursue Jordan Zimmermann in free agency. Seriously, I wrote a blog where I said I thought Zimmermann made the most sense. Go check, I'll wait. You back? OK!!!! They opted instead to sign Johnny Cueto. Now first let me say I am not totally opposed to that signing. Cueto was a very solid pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting as recently as 2014, and finishing 4th in 2012. Zimmermann, on the other hand, finished 5th in 2014 and 7th in 2013. Measurables are fairly similar, both were born in 1986, Cueto in February and Zimmermann in May. Cueto stands 5'11" at 220 pounds while Zimmemann is 6'2" and 200. Cueto has 1 more season of experience amounting to 48 more starts and 328 2/3 more innings pitched. Both were coming off subpar performances in 2015, Cueto finishing 11-13 with a 3.44 ERA and Zimmermann finishing 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA. Cueto also just won a World Series with the Kansas City Royals. But as a Giants fan, the last image I had of Zimmermann was Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS when he pitched 8 2/3 innings of 3-hit, shutout baseball against the eventual World Series champion Giants (he was charged with the game tying run, but truly it was allowed by Drew Storen). His previous start, on the last day of the 2014 regular season? Not bad really, all he did was no-hit the Miami Marlins on 104 pitches, walking 1 and striking out 10. This is not to take anything away from Cueto, whose final game on 2015 was game 2 of the World Series where he pitched a Complete Game against the New York Mets, allowing 2 hits and 1 run (also walked 3 and struck out 4). My personal opinion was that I would have preferred Zimmermann.
Zimmermann ended up signing a 5-year, $110 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, while Cueto would sign for 6 years and $130 million with the Giants. I do not know the specific details of the Zimmermann contract, whether he has an opt out, team options, etc., but the per year values are similar, $22 million per year for Zimmermann and $21.66 million per year for Cueto. Cueto has an opt out following the 2017 season and would receive a $5 million buyout if he exercises that option. The Giants also have a team option 7th year for $22 million or a $5 million buyout in 2022. So we're talking about 2 very similar players with 2 very similar contracts. One I would have preferred and the other the guy that the Giants actually signed.
Right now each starter has 4 starts, so we're about 1/8 of the way through their respective seasons, and while won-lost records are similar (Zimmermann 4-0, Cueto 3-1), I believe Zimmermann has been the better pitcher by a pretty wide margin. Consider that Zimmermann allowed his first run in the 6th inning of his fourth game, while Cueto allowed his first run in the 2nd inning of his first game, and allowed 5 runs in the 1st inning of his second game against the Dodgers. So let's take a look, game by game, how these 2 starters match up.
Zimmermann: Innings Pitched Hits Runs Earned Runs Walks Strike Outs Pitches
4/8 vs. New York Yankees: 7 2 0 0 3 3 100
4/14 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 6 0 0 2 4 107
4/20 vs. Kansas City Royals: 6.1 7 0 0 1 8 105
4/25 vs. Oakland A's: 6.2 7 3 1 1 1 102
Cueto:
4/5 vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 7 6 1 1 0 4 96
4/10 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 10 6 6 2 8 104
4/16 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 7.1 3 1 1 2 7 109
4/21 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 7 8 3 3 0 3 83
So here's my takeaway. First, I find it odd that 1/8 of the way through the season, Zimmermann has only pitched agasint 1 division rival, while Cueto has pitched 3 in-division games already. That's just weird scheduling that the Giants have already played so many in-division games. In fact, in 21 games, the Giants have only played 6 non-division games, 3 vs. Milwaukee and 3 vs. Miami. Cueto has pitched deeper into games thus far. Cueto has allowed 5 more hits in 2.1 more innings, but he has walked 3 fewer so he actually has a better WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched), 1.094 vs. 1.115. Both are still excellent as 1.3 is average. Cueto has 6 more strikeouts. The biggest separation here is run prevention. Cueto has a 3.49 ERA while Zimmermann is at 0.35. ERA, kids, is Earned Runs allowed per 9 Innings Pitched. So Cueto is allowing 3 1/2 runs per complete game, while Zimmermann is allowing less than 1. Is that sustainable? Absolutely not. At the end of the year, who will have had the better season? Way too early to tell. Could we see Cueto vs. Zimmermann in an ultimate showdown? Well, the Giants and Tigers don't play each other this season so the only way we'll see it is if the Giants and Tigers square off in the World Series (rematch from 2012), but currently the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central at 9-9 while the Giants are 3rd in the NL West at 10-11 so we've got a ways to go. If Cueto or Zimmermann were traded to a contender in the other league, we could see a regular season matchup, but considering both are in the first years of multi-year deals, it is unlikely either would be traded.
You're probably asking yourself right now, what is the point of all of this? What is he trying to say? Why have I wasted the last 20 minutes reading this nonsense? All valid questions, I assure you. I guess if nothing else, it is just validation for me that my original preference of the Giants pursuing Zimmermann over Cueto was the right call. Now if I can just figure out how to get the Giants to put me on the payroll.....
Thanks for reading.
Zimmermann ended up signing a 5-year, $110 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, while Cueto would sign for 6 years and $130 million with the Giants. I do not know the specific details of the Zimmermann contract, whether he has an opt out, team options, etc., but the per year values are similar, $22 million per year for Zimmermann and $21.66 million per year for Cueto. Cueto has an opt out following the 2017 season and would receive a $5 million buyout if he exercises that option. The Giants also have a team option 7th year for $22 million or a $5 million buyout in 2022. So we're talking about 2 very similar players with 2 very similar contracts. One I would have preferred and the other the guy that the Giants actually signed.
Right now each starter has 4 starts, so we're about 1/8 of the way through their respective seasons, and while won-lost records are similar (Zimmermann 4-0, Cueto 3-1), I believe Zimmermann has been the better pitcher by a pretty wide margin. Consider that Zimmermann allowed his first run in the 6th inning of his fourth game, while Cueto allowed his first run in the 2nd inning of his first game, and allowed 5 runs in the 1st inning of his second game against the Dodgers. So let's take a look, game by game, how these 2 starters match up.
Zimmermann: Innings Pitched Hits Runs Earned Runs Walks Strike Outs Pitches
4/8 vs. New York Yankees: 7 2 0 0 3 3 100
4/14 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 6 0 0 2 4 107
4/20 vs. Kansas City Royals: 6.1 7 0 0 1 8 105
4/25 vs. Oakland A's: 6.2 7 3 1 1 1 102
Cueto:
4/5 vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 7 6 1 1 0 4 96
4/10 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 10 6 6 2 8 104
4/16 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 7.1 3 1 1 2 7 109
4/21 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 7 8 3 3 0 3 83
So here's my takeaway. First, I find it odd that 1/8 of the way through the season, Zimmermann has only pitched agasint 1 division rival, while Cueto has pitched 3 in-division games already. That's just weird scheduling that the Giants have already played so many in-division games. In fact, in 21 games, the Giants have only played 6 non-division games, 3 vs. Milwaukee and 3 vs. Miami. Cueto has pitched deeper into games thus far. Cueto has allowed 5 more hits in 2.1 more innings, but he has walked 3 fewer so he actually has a better WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched), 1.094 vs. 1.115. Both are still excellent as 1.3 is average. Cueto has 6 more strikeouts. The biggest separation here is run prevention. Cueto has a 3.49 ERA while Zimmermann is at 0.35. ERA, kids, is Earned Runs allowed per 9 Innings Pitched. So Cueto is allowing 3 1/2 runs per complete game, while Zimmermann is allowing less than 1. Is that sustainable? Absolutely not. At the end of the year, who will have had the better season? Way too early to tell. Could we see Cueto vs. Zimmermann in an ultimate showdown? Well, the Giants and Tigers don't play each other this season so the only way we'll see it is if the Giants and Tigers square off in the World Series (rematch from 2012), but currently the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central at 9-9 while the Giants are 3rd in the NL West at 10-11 so we've got a ways to go. If Cueto or Zimmermann were traded to a contender in the other league, we could see a regular season matchup, but considering both are in the first years of multi-year deals, it is unlikely either would be traded.
You're probably asking yourself right now, what is the point of all of this? What is he trying to say? Why have I wasted the last 20 minutes reading this nonsense? All valid questions, I assure you. I guess if nothing else, it is just validation for me that my original preference of the Giants pursuing Zimmermann over Cueto was the right call. Now if I can just figure out how to get the Giants to put me on the payroll.....
Thanks for reading.
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